Happy New Year to All! New Direction for BTC, or more of same?
The answer of course is, I don't know, and neither do you. It's all about probabilities in the end, and proper risk management. Personal psychology. That boring, hard stuff. Let's be real, TA is the easy part. The fun part. The glorious part.
So here we are...
A) Just over a year ago, we found ourselves here. New Lows formed. People calling for 1.2-1.8k. We hit the new year (2019) around 4k (up almost 30% from the low), and then we dump a large portion of it back. Notice we break that 2019 Open price with some serious conviction, a nearly perfect 45deg Bullish grind up, after successfully defending the Lows. Historically, 5 out of 9 January's have been Bearish for BTC
B) We put in a textbook Blowoff Top into a Bearish Weekly Orderblock from January 2018, it's first touch since forming...And get SLAMMED. ZigZag down to our previous Resistance, now turned support (9k or so), make a 2nd Run at that 14k block that just smacked us into last week.....Put in a Lower High, followed by a Bearish Engulfing that manages to fight it's way above the 33% (barely, and temporarily). It's from this point, everyone should realize we're in a Bearish Market/Corrective Market, call it what you want....Probability favors Downside from here, from now (Aug 19th @10.2 or so). And honestly, once we put in that LH, we were at very least ranging for a bit from that point...but I digress.
We continue to dump, manage a retest of the 33% from the downside, Fails miserably, forms an inside bar which resolves to the Downside. We lose the 50% in monstrous fashion and run it all the way down to the 66% level, which is essentially where we currently find ourselves! Now that our trip down memory lane, and all that was 2019 is over........
C) We have the 50% above us as Resistance currently (8.5k, which I've been calling for a test of). Below us, we have 66%, which has been hit entirely too many times recently to expect any time of real hold under pressure, and the 75%. The 75% is currently un-tested from the Top, and a nice target in my opinion. This level has nice confluence with the Trendline being formed by the pivots, which just held nearly perfect, bouncing at the level almost to the dollar. So we currently find ourselves in this range....5.8-8.5k is what I see as our current Playground for BTC.
So here we find ourselves....For me.....as long as we hold above that 6.8k ish area, I see us testing 8.5k next. I closed out of my longs from that region when we lost 7.2k (as I said in a previous post), and am currently waiting to see how PA unfolds. I'll long retests/pullbacks to the 6.8 so long as we manage to hold it....and if we lose it, I'll pick up shorts in opposite fashion, and ride em to the 5.8k region. Below 5.8k things get dicey. Could go to high 4's, low 5's. Could totally melt and make new lows....again....NO ONE KNOWS...regardless of what they tell you. As always, good luck, happy trading. Practice solid risk management.
So here we are...
A) Just over a year ago, we found ourselves here. New Lows formed. People calling for 1.2-1.8k. We hit the new year (2019) around 4k (up almost 30% from the low), and then we dump a large portion of it back. Notice we break that 2019 Open price with some serious conviction, a nearly perfect 45deg Bullish grind up, after successfully defending the Lows. Historically, 5 out of 9 January's have been Bearish for BTC
B) We put in a textbook Blowoff Top into a Bearish Weekly Orderblock from January 2018, it's first touch since forming...And get SLAMMED. ZigZag down to our previous Resistance, now turned support (9k or so), make a 2nd Run at that 14k block that just smacked us into last week.....Put in a Lower High, followed by a Bearish Engulfing that manages to fight it's way above the 33% (barely, and temporarily). It's from this point, everyone should realize we're in a Bearish Market/Corrective Market, call it what you want....Probability favors Downside from here, from now (Aug 19th @10.2 or so). And honestly, once we put in that LH, we were at very least ranging for a bit from that point...but I digress.
We continue to dump, manage a retest of the 33% from the downside, Fails miserably, forms an inside bar which resolves to the Downside. We lose the 50% in monstrous fashion and run it all the way down to the 66% level, which is essentially where we currently find ourselves! Now that our trip down memory lane, and all that was 2019 is over........
C) We have the 50% above us as Resistance currently (8.5k, which I've been calling for a test of). Below us, we have 66%, which has been hit entirely too many times recently to expect any time of real hold under pressure, and the 75%. The 75% is currently un-tested from the Top, and a nice target in my opinion. This level has nice confluence with the Trendline being formed by the pivots, which just held nearly perfect, bouncing at the level almost to the dollar. So we currently find ourselves in this range....5.8-8.5k is what I see as our current Playground for BTC.
So here we find ourselves....For me.....as long as we hold above that 6.8k ish area, I see us testing 8.5k next. I closed out of my longs from that region when we lost 7.2k (as I said in a previous post), and am currently waiting to see how PA unfolds. I'll long retests/pullbacks to the 6.8 so long as we manage to hold it....and if we lose it, I'll pick up shorts in opposite fashion, and ride em to the 5.8k region. Below 5.8k things get dicey. Could go to high 4's, low 5's. Could totally melt and make new lows....again....NO ONE KNOWS...regardless of what they tell you. As always, good luck, happy trading. Practice solid risk management.
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