BTC Macro Update - Double Top or Higher Highs?

29 oct. 2020

Hey, here is a quick update to my BTC macro chart. Yes, it has been difficult being a bear and getting ridiculed on the move up to these price levels. What you have to understand is that market movements are designed to squeeze every last drop of blood out of people who might see the macro picture clearly but are slightly inaccurate with the details. So many bears have been liquidated without BTC seeing a correction even to the 38.2% Fib level. Yes, 12.5k was not the top but it does not change anything in the big picture. We have to see whether the whales will allow this double top at 13.8k to confirm. If they do, then what would be more bearish than watching BTC crawl back up to 13.8k for one and a half years and getting a double top rejection.

However, if we do push higher then the next level to watch is 14.7k which would be a third retest of the macro support turned resistance line and a one to one uptrend extension of the move from 3k. Yes, things need to be readjusted on the chart but you cannot determine the exact angle of this macro channel before our top is confirmed. Also, the fractal leaves a lot up to interpretation. Luckily, my 12K shorts are low leverage and they are a small percentage of my portfolio so I have a lot of capital to add from my war chest. Therefore, I have just been laddering up my short position until we top out. There has been no bull market with a move of this magnitude not correcting back to the 38.2-61.8% Fib level so the more fuel the bulls pile up, the bigger the explosion will be.

Bear in mind that we also have two unfilled weekly CME gaps and two unfilled 4h CME gaps all the way down to 3.5k.

Let's see what happens. See you in a future update!

17 nov. 2020

Note

This market is crazy. The next meaningful resistances are 17.8k (88.6% Fib) and 19k (weekly close). If those get disrespected as well and break then we will obviously go to ATH. Keep in mind that our last weekly close was below the 78.6% Fib.