BTC: What if we were reading the charts all wrong?
Mis à jour
Lately I was again revisiting the strange notion how much earlier this cycle appears to be than the previous one.
We were already up to 50-60k by early this year, values which I thought we wouldn't reach until late 2021.
But if we look at the historical trends, the cycle duration was increasing and not decreasing. If that would continue, then the real ATH should be somewhere in mid 2023.
So how would this fit with the current high at 65k?
Well, what if this rally to 65k is similar to the one from the low in 2018 at 3100 up to 14k?
This would mean that this first pump here, same as in 2018/19 came too soon and was far too agressive.
In 2019, this lead to a very very long corrective structure, because we just rose too fast, too soon.
A similar situation could occur again, this is a scenario we should not entirely dismiss.
Especially since everyone expects the rally to resume soon. It would come as a great surprise to many if we now correct for more than a year in a long drawn out
sideways movement with a low maybe around 20-30k.
Of course I don't really like this scenario any more than you would, because this means we'd have to wait longer for the top, but it is not something we should rule out,
just because we hate it.
Accordingly of course, the altcoins will then at some point also follow BTC and go into a long sideways/decline until mid 2022.
This is definitely something which I will keep in mind when cashing out the profits from altcoins such as XRP.
It might make sense to already cash out a percentage of the gains in the next 1-2 months, in case such a scenario develops.
We were already up to 50-60k by early this year, values which I thought we wouldn't reach until late 2021.
But if we look at the historical trends, the cycle duration was increasing and not decreasing. If that would continue, then the real ATH should be somewhere in mid 2023.
So how would this fit with the current high at 65k?
Well, what if this rally to 65k is similar to the one from the low in 2018 at 3100 up to 14k?
This would mean that this first pump here, same as in 2018/19 came too soon and was far too agressive.
In 2019, this lead to a very very long corrective structure, because we just rose too fast, too soon.
A similar situation could occur again, this is a scenario we should not entirely dismiss.
Especially since everyone expects the rally to resume soon. It would come as a great surprise to many if we now correct for more than a year in a long drawn out
sideways movement with a low maybe around 20-30k.
Of course I don't really like this scenario any more than you would, because this means we'd have to wait longer for the top, but it is not something we should rule out,
just because we hate it.
Accordingly of course, the altcoins will then at some point also follow BTC and go into a long sideways/decline until mid 2022.
This is definitely something which I will keep in mind when cashing out the profits from altcoins such as XRP.
It might make sense to already cash out a percentage of the gains in the next 1-2 months, in case such a scenario develops.
Note
No, it's not Elon's tweets that sent bitcoin dumping. It's BTC's weakness which we have been observing for weeks now: Declining volume, and strong bearish divergences on the RSI on weekly and 3d timeframe. A strong bitcoin would have just ignored the news that Tesla won't accept bitcoin any more.
I think what is really happening, is that we might get a similar situation as in 2019:
A long drawn out sideways, with a shakeout and then off it goes to 300k, but the cycle duration might have increased after all, so that we see the ATH in late 2022.
That would fit the lengthening cycle theory.
Note
I should add though, that I don't think that this scenario is very likely. I would put the odds at maybe 30%.
The more likely one is imho, that we resume the bullrun in the next weeks and then 100k+ towards the end of the year.
Note
Turns out, this is quite an accurate model until now. Let's see for how long, though :)
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