BTC Bear scenario

1 juin 2015

So far the $235 short entry in my last post has been successful and we have broken away from the pivot to the downside. Considering the immense BBand compression on several time frames, volatility should be picking up soon. Initially there should be a small retracement as an attempt to shake late shorters such as more novice ones that use diagonal lines as confirmation rather than horizontal support. Assuming that retraces back down and we continue to consolidate near lows, this should be followed by a high volume test of 210 that everyone has been waiting for. From there, we should have the typical week or so long bounce that happens after most of the parabolic downwards moves while larger players refill their positions - shorts should be entered around $230 and the 200ema with stops at $240. After, I see it as very unlikely that the sentiment moves away from being so negative about the block limit consensus problems and we are pushed through $210 where there is no major support until $135; bounces may happen at $180 and the recent low. If the bounce manages to break $235 then waiting until $250+ confirmation for longs would be the safest choice.

EDIT: first arrow happened a little while after when it was expected; time frame for the entire move likely to be much larger than what is charted.