Market cycles applied

6 janv. 2019

Hello,

If I learned something in 2018 it is about market cycles. 2017 was the year I learn to draw trendlines and follow performing assets early on, and 2018 the year I learned about market cycles (and start doing the opposite of what I did in 2017 - enter opposite to trends).
Maybe by 2020 I will have learned how to do both.

So to be clear, this is not an idea to go long, I have no idea, if there is an opportunity I am not experienced enough to know.
What I know is that if every thing go as planned (we follow the market cycle pattern & 6000 / 7500 areas get reached and not overcut) then there are short opportunities.





I hope you like market cycles because I absolutely love them and it is the only way I will trade in 2019 (I will post an idea about my debrief of 2018 in a few days).
Market cycles Elliot waves Fibonacci
Market cycles Elliot waves Fibonacci
Market cycles Elliot waves Fibonacci

Here is a trade I took on gold recently (entered a bit early, maybe a mistake):



Market cycles Elliot waves Fibonacci
Market cycles Elliot waves Fibonacci
Market cycles Elliot waves Fibonacci

And btw I think you always got this divergence when parabolic moves are ending:


But oscillators are so useless, like I can't tell visually the parabolic move is slowing down by just looking at the chart LOL.
Come on seriously, indicators are dumb.
Unless you want to set some kind of alert, like "if RSI rises by 30 points then shows divergence" or something, as a way to be alerted of things like this.
Otherwise I really do not see the point. It's just dumb to use them in your analysis.

Market cycles Elliot waves Fibonacci

Fibonacci I think use both the quadrant thing to get an idea, it's a general area, + 0.618/1.618 that are important numbers, and then the usual number 0.382 0.786 that are self fulfilling can be used I suppose.

So ye, not going long or shorting BTC until we know more and it goes AT LEAST to 5500$ (or the other way around).

* A correction: Back in 2017 I joined trends that were well established, like half to 2/3 in. Works wonders.

I forgot to write this. The experts (that look at 5 minutes charts to predict a year) think $6000 will be tested, alot of people kinda expect it. 7000+ is perfect, just high enough to destroy bears and make them change their minds, and bait the bulls to fill my ord - er I mean think the bear market is over ;)

10 janv. 2019

Note

Possibility 2

16 mai 2019

Note

People involved in crypto might have heard about bears, that were around for years, that just gave up / lost everything recently.

Bitmex bears capitulated.
CME bears capitulated.

And then...



Let the party begin!

26 mai 2019

Transaction en cours

Here we go again. Reversed.

The dogs bark, the caravan passes.
The emotional bad speculators come and go they get angry and they lose everything, but you keep going.

When you understand market cycles and experienced a few, infinitely repeating cycle, you understand you should ignore emotional ragers, and it gets so peaceful.
For some reason people cannot help get excited by big green candles.

Ignoring it.
For some it is natural, for others they have to work on it.

Same story over and over. It is so peaceful when you understand it.

28 mai 2019

Note

Mmm part 2 looks like this I guess. Maybe.
Going to take 6 months to 1 year and a half I assume to see if I was right... zzz
If we go against me I'll know quickly if I am wrong.

11 juil. 2019

Note

I did not think shorts would go so low...
Bears are an endangered species at that point...
Much lower than 2017 peak even.

26 sept. 2019

Note

Part 3 broke out of distribution...