BTC/USD - Long Scenario
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This is the first analysis I have posted since buying my new 27" curved monitor! I must say, using this so far it is VERY good and for people that look at multiple charts at the same time, it's like a dream come true. It also saves the need for having multiple screens as well, meaning it's a great asset to any trading desk and I'd highly recommend it!
Moving onto why we're all here, Bitcoin has been trading upward in an uptrend since 15th July. The uptrend has been very good, with a stable uptrend followed by corrections before up swings showing a trustworthy up move rather than a hype uptrend without any sensible corrections within it. I decided to look closer at the up moves to gage some type of market sentiment and look for logical places to enter. When I began analyzing the trend, I deciphered the up move into impulse and corrective waves to figure out what's happening. When I analyzed the up trend, I can see the up trend is broken down cycles. For each cycle, there appears to be an impulse swing, followed by a correction, before the next up move occurs. For each cycle, the price does NOT go below the swing leg before the up move. For each cycle correction, price is falling but is ending it's correction on a key side-wards support line before bouncing for the next cycle.
With the side-wards support line in play, price is kept contained in an uptrend. not only is the side-wards support line in play, there is also the 50 moving average right at the side-wards support which may well enforce the side-wards support line and make it more likely to work due to multiple technical indicators showing strength in this specific area.
With price near approaching the side-wards support line, I believe we are about to have a cycle 3. When price hits the side-wards support line, this is when the cycle should be watched for. If price hits the side-wards support line and then bounces to the upside, price could complete a cycle 3 impulse leg, and achieve an upside target as high as 9158. The 9158 target also coincides with a 1.618 extension of the previous cycle swing leg, just as cycle 2 was a 1.618 extension of cycle 1's impulse move.
Bear in mind that if price breaks strongly below the side-wards support line and the 50 moving average support, then this idea may well not work out this time. If it doesn't work out, I'll simply go back to the drawing board. Being right isn't important, but having a plan, is.
Where do YOU think price is heading? Comment your charts below and let's share our thoughts!
Please leave a LIKE. I'd really appreciate it.
Thank you for your support.
Moving onto why we're all here, Bitcoin has been trading upward in an uptrend since 15th July. The uptrend has been very good, with a stable uptrend followed by corrections before up swings showing a trustworthy up move rather than a hype uptrend without any sensible corrections within it. I decided to look closer at the up moves to gage some type of market sentiment and look for logical places to enter. When I began analyzing the trend, I deciphered the up move into impulse and corrective waves to figure out what's happening. When I analyzed the up trend, I can see the up trend is broken down cycles. For each cycle, there appears to be an impulse swing, followed by a correction, before the next up move occurs. For each cycle, the price does NOT go below the swing leg before the up move. For each cycle correction, price is falling but is ending it's correction on a key side-wards support line before bouncing for the next cycle.
With the side-wards support line in play, price is kept contained in an uptrend. not only is the side-wards support line in play, there is also the 50 moving average right at the side-wards support which may well enforce the side-wards support line and make it more likely to work due to multiple technical indicators showing strength in this specific area.
With price near approaching the side-wards support line, I believe we are about to have a cycle 3. When price hits the side-wards support line, this is when the cycle should be watched for. If price hits the side-wards support line and then bounces to the upside, price could complete a cycle 3 impulse leg, and achieve an upside target as high as 9158. The 9158 target also coincides with a 1.618 extension of the previous cycle swing leg, just as cycle 2 was a 1.618 extension of cycle 1's impulse move.
Bear in mind that if price breaks strongly below the side-wards support line and the 50 moving average support, then this idea may well not work out this time. If it doesn't work out, I'll simply go back to the drawing board. Being right isn't important, but having a plan, is.
Where do YOU think price is heading? Comment your charts below and let's share our thoughts!
Please leave a LIKE. I'd really appreciate it.
Thank you for your support.
Note
Price is beginning the downside correction just as anticipated. I am expecting the correction to end on at around the side-wards support line at 8000 and then a new up move to follow as per my analysis.So far looks good, and looks like it will continue as planned.
I will continue to update this analysis if it receives enough attention.
Please leave a LIKE. I'd really appreciate it.
Note
A large wick rejection candle to the downside as price approached my target support level! This rejection candle clearly shows bulls reluctance to see price go lower.As well as trading sentiment, there is also a clear reason why rejection happened here. After all, we are at a long term side-wards support line as well as using the 50 moving average as a support.
The real question now is, will price find proper support and bounce off of this level to the upside and begin the 3rd cycle?
Please leave a LIKE. I'd really appreciate it.
Note
Price is hanging around at the bottom of the cycle. If it breaks the cycle, price may well go in for a steeper correction.My additional thoughts on Bitcoin's short term and future moves are in my new analysis below.
Feel free to take a look! :-)
Note
The cycle plan did not go as planned. This was already highly obvious but a person new to trading recently requested I tell you all that this idea is invalidated so this is for her. I hope no one else is now confused. Refer to my new analysis for my update :-)"""Bear in mind that if price breaks strongly below the side-wards support line and the 50 moving average support, then this idea may well not work out this time. If it doesn't work out, I'll simply go back to the drawing board. Being right isn't important, but having a plan, is. """
^ The above is ever so important. In trading you'll never ever be right 100% of the time. So if you think someone ever will be, think again.
Please leave a like, I'd really appreciate it.
Thank you for your support.
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