🔥 Bitcoin Following Sentiment Cycle: Bullish Move Ahead?
Recently I've seen several people comparing the BTC price path to Justin Mamis' "Sentiment Cycle". If you compare the two images, you can clearly see that BTC has closely been following this pattern over the last few months, apart from a couple of small details.
I wanted to add some nuance to the discussion. Patterns like this one, and the Wyckoff patterns for example, are true until they aren't. Sounds simple, but its the truth. Patterns like these often need several confirmations before you can confidently say that an asset is following the pattern, and by that time the asset might decide to move the other way. Look at my Wyckoff accumulation pattern analysis below for an example.
Thing is, we're currently in a very difficult economic environment. Inflation hasn't been this high in 40 years and the FED is failing to combat it effectively, so more downside is definitely possible, which would invalidate the "Sentiment Cycle" pattern.
However, the "Sentiment Cycle" is definitely a possibility. We're currently in the ending stages of a long-term bull-cycle which started after the last crisis in 2008. Classically, bull-cycles like this one end with one last parabolic move up. Still, take this pattern with a grain of salt before actively trading on it.
Happy trading!
I wanted to add some nuance to the discussion. Patterns like this one, and the Wyckoff patterns for example, are true until they aren't. Sounds simple, but its the truth. Patterns like these often need several confirmations before you can confidently say that an asset is following the pattern, and by that time the asset might decide to move the other way. Look at my Wyckoff accumulation pattern analysis below for an example.
Thing is, we're currently in a very difficult economic environment. Inflation hasn't been this high in 40 years and the FED is failing to combat it effectively, so more downside is definitely possible, which would invalidate the "Sentiment Cycle" pattern.
However, the "Sentiment Cycle" is definitely a possibility. We're currently in the ending stages of a long-term bull-cycle which started after the last crisis in 2008. Classically, bull-cycles like this one end with one last parabolic move up. Still, take this pattern with a grain of salt before actively trading on it.
Happy trading!
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