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Another Decisive Moment For Bitcoin

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Here it is - we finally get a bit of a relief bounce! All my bearish sentiment and opinions aside, I've been speculating about a relief rally for weeks, and even toyed with some altcoin trading positions. As I've also mentioned, the market needs an incredibly powerful upswing to reverse the broken long term trends. Otherwise, those longer-term moving averages risk becoming resistance. Unless I see Bitcoin decidedly above the 50 week MA (red - near ) and holding up well, I assume any rally is just a bounce in a longer downtrend.

Amidst a great sigh of relief, Bitcoin is back above the 200 week MA (teal), and is currently taking a pause at the 9 week EMA (orange). This moving average proved pivotal after Bitcoin's epic crash in 2018 to 3.2k. Once Bitcoin found support above it again, it began a slow grind towards a larger reversal.

If Bitcoin cannot get above the 9 week EMA here and flip it back into support, it would look incredibly bearish. I'm also seeing skyrocketing open interest, which shows that it could simply be the futures market holding up price. Spot volume looks decent on Coinbase though, so I will give this rally some merit - except Ethereum is leading again, which has consistently been a sell-signal throughout 2021 and 2022. Let's see if this time proves any different.

If Bitcoin can break back above the 9 week EMA, there is a lot of room for upside, even towards the yellow and red moving averages. This would align with my speculation that we can see a rally last until the end of the year before markets begin to turn down again. I do not really see a sustained rally as a healthy thing, especially during such a tough economic period. I would much prefer to see further consolidation and re-evaluation, rather than a continuation of the status-quo.

This is not meant as financial advice. This is meant for speculation and entertainment only. Let's see what happens in this crazy market!

Note

Just saw - Tesla sold most of their Bitcoin in Q2. This explains the sudden drop from 24k. We can speculate endlessly about the reasoning behind this, but I'm guessing part of it was to reduce risk for TSLA in the event Elon acquired Twitter. As market conditions worsened and analysts observed Microstrategy's extreme price decline, TSLA may have decided that holding Bitcoin on its balance sheet wasn't perceived as a "positive" but as a "risk."

Note

There is also this channel. Bitcoin ideally needs to hold above on this little correction to allow for any substantial upside.