#202426 - priceactiontds - weekly update - bitcoin
Good Evening and I hope you are well.
bitcoin
Quote from last week:
comment: Guess what. Anyone looking at this chart who tells you to buy for anything higher than 66000 is a permabull in denial. The last time a daily bull bar closed above its midpoint was almost 3 weeks ago. The bull trend line from 2024-02 is clearly broken. Market touched the weekly 20ema and bounced some but bulls could not get any follow through, what so ever. Bears are not that strong either tbh, just grinding this down. At some point one side will give up for a huge drop/bounce. Until bulls can make higher highs above 66500 again, you should not be looking to buy this imo. So what’s next? I expect more sideways to up movement until we reach the upper bear channel and/or the daily ema gain, where I will look for shorts again. Targets below are 61000 and if that does not hold, 56000-58000 is next.
current market cycle: trading range until clear break below 56000. It’s also a smaller weak bear trend inside that big trading range
key levels: 62000 - 67000 small range / 56000 - 74000 (big range)
bull case: Bulls tried to find a double bottom on Monday around 65000 but bears just kept at it on Tuesday and every bull bar the bulls produce on the daily is a doji or is closing below it’s midpoint. They want to touch the upper bear channel again and maybe the daily ema around 66000 but I don’t think they can get above 65000.
Invalidation is below 63000.
bear case: Bear want the bulls to finally give up and produce some big bear bars closing on their lows for targets below 60000. The selling get’s weaker and it’s just a slow grind down. Best trades are currently shorts near the 4h 20ema. Odds clearly favor the bears to break stronger to the downside, than bulls breaking above the channel.
Invalidation is above 67000.
short term: Neutral between 63300 - 65500. Expecting sideways to up movement in this range before another try to push this down harder to 60000 or 57000.
medium-long term: Down to 50000 (could take 3-6 months). Longer term than that time frame, I don’t know. Could also drop to 30000 again but let’s make 40000 first and see how many want to buy there. —Adjusted 40000 to 50000 and 40000 to 30000 because we are staying so long up here above 60000.
current swing trade: None
chart update: Removed longer waves and just focusing on this bear channel and how market behaves around 63000 over the next 1-2 days. Will update the daily chart again when we see a bigger move.
bitcoin
Quote from last week:
comment:Currently my favorite market to trade and comment on because I’m hittin dem swings big time. And because btc permabullz are entertaining and salty af. Market is clearly trading down again and they shout from the rooftops that we will print 80/100k soon. In all seriousness. Clear trading range 65000 - 72000. Currently in a smaller down trend probably to touch the bull trend line around 65000 and then maybe back up to test the upper triangle trend line around 67000 again. Bear channel and triangle, both patterns are in play currently. 66000 continues to be big support so it will take something to break through. If we do break below, 61000 is next.
comment: Guess what. Anyone looking at this chart who tells you to buy for anything higher than 66000 is a permabull in denial. The last time a daily bull bar closed above its midpoint was almost 3 weeks ago. The bull trend line from 2024-02 is clearly broken. Market touched the weekly 20ema and bounced some but bulls could not get any follow through, what so ever. Bears are not that strong either tbh, just grinding this down. At some point one side will give up for a huge drop/bounce. Until bulls can make higher highs above 66500 again, you should not be looking to buy this imo. So what’s next? I expect more sideways to up movement until we reach the upper bear channel and/or the daily ema gain, where I will look for shorts again. Targets below are 61000 and if that does not hold, 56000-58000 is next.
current market cycle: trading range until clear break below 56000. It’s also a smaller weak bear trend inside that big trading range
key levels: 62000 - 67000 small range / 56000 - 74000 (big range)
bull case: Bulls tried to find a double bottom on Monday around 65000 but bears just kept at it on Tuesday and every bull bar the bulls produce on the daily is a doji or is closing below it’s midpoint. They want to touch the upper bear channel again and maybe the daily ema around 66000 but I don’t think they can get above 65000.
Invalidation is below 63000.
bear case: Bear want the bulls to finally give up and produce some big bear bars closing on their lows for targets below 60000. The selling get’s weaker and it’s just a slow grind down. Best trades are currently shorts near the 4h 20ema. Odds clearly favor the bears to break stronger to the downside, than bulls breaking above the channel.
Invalidation is above 67000.
short term: Neutral between 63300 - 65500. Expecting sideways to up movement in this range before another try to push this down harder to 60000 or 57000.
medium-long term: Down to 50000 (could take 3-6 months). Longer term than that time frame, I don’t know. Could also drop to 30000 again but let’s make 40000 first and see how many want to buy there. —Adjusted 40000 to 50000 and 40000 to 30000 because we are staying so long up here above 60000.
current swing trade: None
chart update: Removed longer waves and just focusing on this bear channel and how market behaves around 63000 over the next 1-2 days. Will update the daily chart again when we see a bigger move.
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