Zooming out

6 juin 2020

Hi guys,

I compared last big bull run with the current situation and marked some important future dates / price levels (purely for entertaining purposes)
Let me know what you think the future will bring to bitcoin!

I used the bull run of 2016-2017 as a pattern.
Gann fans used as a base for the trend, assuming that the 2/1 trend line will be the base support of the bull run.
The top of the trend is determined by a junction between the bars pattern of last big bull run and the 1/1 trend line of the gann fans.
This junction also matches the timing of approximately 1.5 years after the halving. Historically this matches last halvings.

Key price points:
Test of ATH (19.6k USD) - Approximately end of 2020
New ATH (> 19.6k USD) - Approximately 2 months after first test (end of 02/2020)
Top of the next bull run (+/- 180k USD) - Approximately 1.5 years after the halving, being October 2021.


Zooming in, we see that the latest pump crossed the 2/1 gann fann. We should see a slowly higher creeping price towards the end of September, after which volatility will start to increase. Once BTC starts pumping, we won't touch the 2/1 gann fan until after the next big bull run.




Ofcourse this is based on a historical trend, which doesn't guarantee this will happen again.
Also there are numerous external influences on the price action of BTC.
Covid 19, sell-out of miners, a crash of national currencies, dominance of strong alt coins... could all affect the upcoming bull run of bitcoin.

PS. I have absolutely no experience in TA, so this is purely hypothetical and for entertaining purposes, but still wanted to share this with everyone else.

Other opinions and ideas are absolutely welcome here :)

Cheers

13 déc. 2020

Note

First test ATH reached, due to high buy pressure no strong pullback yet.
I'm still expecting a pullback to +/- 16,600 USD, which was the double top in 01/2018 and the official start of the 1-year long bear rally.

It is possible BTC will properly breach ATH, but by following the last bull trend, we should see a pullback the next 2 weeks (until Christmas-NYE)

Afterwards BTC should be starting a 1-year parabolic bull rally towards 180k USD - 200k USD

As BTC's history tells us, the ATH will be about 10x ATH of the last 4-year cycle.

Tbc...

P.S.: No trading advice, I'm just comparing 2 4-year cycles as entertainment

11 janv. 2021

Note

BTC is got a head start, but next milestone reached in this idea.
As you can see, first big correction levels exactly matching prediction, but 2 months
Last cycle, this became a 30% correction. Comparing these levels would mean a correction to a minimum of +/- 27K USD

If we keep following last cycle's levels, the next steps are:

27k USD in about a month
67k USD by April
51k USD by May
After this last correction, BTC would start going parabolic with a top around the 200k USD - 250k USD levels by August.

Of course this is only the case, would BTC start following last cycle's moves.

Tbc...

EJ - Just for fun