How bears gained control and will it continue
In this analysis I will give a summation of key events in PA that gave bears control. I also discuss how long I think it could be before 100K.
Thanks for checking out my analysis! Bitcoin had a great run through an ascending broadening wedge that began mid September '23 at a price range between 25K and 28K. But after reaching it's ATH in mid March, Bitcoin PA formed a falling narrowing wedge. These have a tendency to break to the upside, and that is what happened, causing bulls to get excited and we saw an impulse attempt at a new ATH. However, after bulls pushed the price next to the ATH bulls lost conviction and let the price fall, forming a double top. Now I'm just gonna pause here and discuss up to this point, and then move on afterwards.
The falling wedge was a disappointment
Everyone had their eyes on this thing! It was going to launch them to their coveted 100K. But then Bitcoin crushed them when PA fell below the breakout of the wedge, resulting in a failed breakout and a break to the downside. A failed pattern of any kind is, in my opinion, a major indicator in most of my trading decisions whether bearish or bullish, and this particular failure formed the start of the upper bearish trendline that currently is in play now. And market participants perceived it as a double top.
BTC PA was pushed outside the ascending wedge After the breakout failure, BTC began sideways action. The market was stunned and confused and PA was simply forced by time and pushed out the side of the ascending broadening wedge that had propelled BTC to it's ATH. Ascending broadening wedges typically break down.
The broken trendline became resistance
After sideways action pushed PA outside the lower trendline of the ascending broadening wedge PA fell and found support where bulls regained confidence and attempted to push PA back above the trendline. PA lingered on the trendline and slid back down, turning what was previous support into resistance.
The resistance flip is extremely bearish
This event was pivotal, such that, you can see the downward trend began gathering momentum at this point, creating lower highs that were more easily noticed than before, and followed by lower lows. This was a major, red flag to me when combined with the exit from the accessing wedge which break to the downside usually.
The new formed resistance will could limit the ability to reach 100K This is the part of the analysis where I finally tell you my thoughts on future PA.
Ok, suppose BTC continues to respect the newly formed resistance. I'm that scenario the soonest 100K could be reached would be around March 19, 2025. So at the moment I don't see 100K happening, but I'm sure time.
For now, BTC is clearly in trouble. And I think the bear market will suddenly be revealed to those still hoping for instant gratification. I'm not going her super technical about this but I'm watching some levels I think could be potential bottoms. First support 48.8K Second support 42.2K. 3rd support 28-25K area. The reason I made my 3rd support that low is because that is the area the bull run started at that level, and it's reasonable to think BTC might revisit to form a bouble bottom like structure.
When combined and viewed from large TF's all of the factors I listed above paint a grim picture for the flagship cryptocurrency.
Thanks for checking out my analysis! Bitcoin had a great run through an ascending broadening wedge that began mid September '23 at a price range between 25K and 28K. But after reaching it's ATH in mid March, Bitcoin PA formed a falling narrowing wedge. These have a tendency to break to the upside, and that is what happened, causing bulls to get excited and we saw an impulse attempt at a new ATH. However, after bulls pushed the price next to the ATH bulls lost conviction and let the price fall, forming a double top. Now I'm just gonna pause here and discuss up to this point, and then move on afterwards.
The falling wedge was a disappointment
Everyone had their eyes on this thing! It was going to launch them to their coveted 100K. But then Bitcoin crushed them when PA fell below the breakout of the wedge, resulting in a failed breakout and a break to the downside. A failed pattern of any kind is, in my opinion, a major indicator in most of my trading decisions whether bearish or bullish, and this particular failure formed the start of the upper bearish trendline that currently is in play now. And market participants perceived it as a double top.
BTC PA was pushed outside the ascending wedge After the breakout failure, BTC began sideways action. The market was stunned and confused and PA was simply forced by time and pushed out the side of the ascending broadening wedge that had propelled BTC to it's ATH. Ascending broadening wedges typically break down.
The broken trendline became resistance
After sideways action pushed PA outside the lower trendline of the ascending broadening wedge PA fell and found support where bulls regained confidence and attempted to push PA back above the trendline. PA lingered on the trendline and slid back down, turning what was previous support into resistance.
The resistance flip is extremely bearish
This event was pivotal, such that, you can see the downward trend began gathering momentum at this point, creating lower highs that were more easily noticed than before, and followed by lower lows. This was a major, red flag to me when combined with the exit from the accessing wedge which break to the downside usually.
The new formed resistance will could limit the ability to reach 100K This is the part of the analysis where I finally tell you my thoughts on future PA.
Ok, suppose BTC continues to respect the newly formed resistance. I'm that scenario the soonest 100K could be reached would be around March 19, 2025. So at the moment I don't see 100K happening, but I'm sure time.
For now, BTC is clearly in trouble. And I think the bear market will suddenly be revealed to those still hoping for instant gratification. I'm not going her super technical about this but I'm watching some levels I think could be potential bottoms. First support 48.8K Second support 42.2K. 3rd support 28-25K area. The reason I made my 3rd support that low is because that is the area the bull run started at that level, and it's reasonable to think BTC might revisit to form a bouble bottom like structure.
When combined and viewed from large TF's all of the factors I listed above paint a grim picture for the flagship cryptocurrency.
Note
Bulls took another devastating hit after realizing their push to the current upper trendline ended at 64K. Because the PA didn't complete the upward stroke before returning to the lower trend line, this is often a tell that PA is likely to break through support.
More over, the it also adds confirmation to my idea that the lower trendline of the ascending broadening wedge (orange) is now resistance, as highlighted.
Note
Pay attention to the MACD and RSI pattern that has printed. A bearish butterfly, W shaped harmonic pattern. Even though you don't see it printed in price action, when harmonic patterns form in either of these indicators they are extremely reliable. I expect a little more upward or sideways movement in price to complete the current leg in the pattern, before the bullish rally comes to a close. Then the bearish PA will continue. Happy trading!
Note
Note
Bears are still definitely in control. MACD continues to head toward Red. Although my short term trend lines are broken, PA has failed to touch the blue long term trend line before being rejected back down. I'm still bearish. And I expect another attempt to break support coming soon. Happy trading!
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