BTCUSD Perspective And Levels: Signs Of Strength For Now.
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BTCUSD update: Price is pulling back in a very shallow consolidation which is now presenting a bull flag formation. This price action is not characteristic of a weak market or a bearish C Wave. If anything price is poised to retest 8k and possibly higher.
Weak markets do not consolidate near highs, and do not unfold in bullish formations on larger time frames. This market is not weak, yet. I have been writing about the tricky B Wave, which typically unfolds in 3 legs. The current structure appears to be in a minor Wave 4 and setting up for a new high attempt. That is not characteristic of a B Wave which means the market has negated that scenario.
It hasn't even compromised the 7350 minor trend support (.382 of recent bullish swing) and is no where near the 7k support that I was using as a reference to confirm a C Wave was in play. Weak markets reject levels and sell fast, and often originate from a failed high or double top and this market is not showing any of those structures at the moment. The fact that the 7350 and 7k supports are still intact is another bullish sign. Until those levels break, this market is a high risk, low probability short. (In other words a pure gamble).
Based on this time frame, a break of 7800 will also signal buying and possibly the start of the next leg that can go as high as the mid 8ks. Projecting an extension from the 6300 low shows a 1.618 at 8381 which is just under the 8468 level which is the upper boundary of the fakeout zone that I wrote about in my previous report. (It is a projection measured from the 5400 low).
This type of price action is ideal for day trading in my opinion because you don't have to take the large time frame risk, while capitalizing on generous moves. The reason why a swing trade is less attractive is because it is not worth the risk at these levels. I have to risk around 400+ points to possibly make 300 or slightly more? Day trading stops are more like 50 to 100 points while you can capture 150+. Makes much more sense.
In summary, this market still continues to show signs of strength. A shallow retrace, bull flag, untested minor supports, all point to a better chance of higher prices. How much higher? Based on proportions mid 8500s is reasonable at this point. There are many different forces at play in a market like this and little to no regulation. There are pros and cons to every situation. The strength may not make sense in terms of logic, or this market may be propped up by the BTC community through their technical advantages, or maybe it is full of fake Tether as some have suggested. The reasons don't matter if you are a short term speculator. Price action is showing signs of strength, so embrace it or avoid it, no one is forcing you to participate. For my swing trade plan, the risk is unjustified so I will stay flat. If this market is going to sell off hard, it needs a surprise (like an exchange going out of business) because at the moment, there is very little price action to support a bearish argument.
Comments and questions welcome.
Weak markets do not consolidate near highs, and do not unfold in bullish formations on larger time frames. This market is not weak, yet. I have been writing about the tricky B Wave, which typically unfolds in 3 legs. The current structure appears to be in a minor Wave 4 and setting up for a new high attempt. That is not characteristic of a B Wave which means the market has negated that scenario.
It hasn't even compromised the 7350 minor trend support (.382 of recent bullish swing) and is no where near the 7k support that I was using as a reference to confirm a C Wave was in play. Weak markets reject levels and sell fast, and often originate from a failed high or double top and this market is not showing any of those structures at the moment. The fact that the 7350 and 7k supports are still intact is another bullish sign. Until those levels break, this market is a high risk, low probability short. (In other words a pure gamble).
Based on this time frame, a break of 7800 will also signal buying and possibly the start of the next leg that can go as high as the mid 8ks. Projecting an extension from the 6300 low shows a 1.618 at 8381 which is just under the 8468 level which is the upper boundary of the fakeout zone that I wrote about in my previous report. (It is a projection measured from the 5400 low).
This type of price action is ideal for day trading in my opinion because you don't have to take the large time frame risk, while capitalizing on generous moves. The reason why a swing trade is less attractive is because it is not worth the risk at these levels. I have to risk around 400+ points to possibly make 300 or slightly more? Day trading stops are more like 50 to 100 points while you can capture 150+. Makes much more sense.
In summary, this market still continues to show signs of strength. A shallow retrace, bull flag, untested minor supports, all point to a better chance of higher prices. How much higher? Based on proportions mid 8500s is reasonable at this point. There are many different forces at play in a market like this and little to no regulation. There are pros and cons to every situation. The strength may not make sense in terms of logic, or this market may be propped up by the BTC community through their technical advantages, or maybe it is full of fake Tether as some have suggested. The reasons don't matter if you are a short term speculator. Price action is showing signs of strength, so embrace it or avoid it, no one is forcing you to participate. For my swing trade plan, the risk is unjustified so I will stay flat. If this market is going to sell off hard, it needs a surprise (like an exchange going out of business) because at the moment, there is very little price action to support a bearish argument.
Comments and questions welcome.
Note
Quick update: Price is attempting to break out of the consolidation now. This may be the retest of 8K. Today's report will be on ETH so I will update BTC tomorrow.
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