Bitcoin (BTCUSD) has been trading within a very structured Channel Up following the June 19 Low. Both charts are on the 12H time-frame, which illustrates remarkable similarities between the current pattern of 2022 and that of late 2019/ early 2020 following the COVID bottom.
As you see at the moment, the price has turned the 12H MA50 (blue trend-line) into a Support, with the 12H MA200 right above, posing as the Resistance. The 1W RSI has just crossed above its MA (yellow trend-line) putting us potentially in the exact same position as late April 2020. As you see, BTC was also within a Channel Up at the time that eventually broke above the 12H MA200.
However due to the instant recovery on the March 13 2020 bottom and the price jump attributed to the expectation that the trillions of USD printed will keep the economy moving from the lockdowns, that Channel Up was formed much higher than the current one, which is technically a Bear Cycle bottom. Typically their transition is slower. I have plotted the 2020 recovery sequence on today's price action in order to make one possible projection.
As you see, many aspects on the two patterns are similar: both had their MA50 and MA200 cross three times before the bottom, both got rejected on the 0.786 Fibonacci, their Lower Lows were roughly on a -35° angle and both rebounded on the 1W MA300 (red trend-line).
Do you think we will have a similar recovery to that of post COVID? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section below!
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As you see at the moment, the price has turned the 12H MA50 (blue trend-line) into a Support, with the 12H MA200 right above, posing as the Resistance. The 1W RSI has just crossed above its MA (yellow trend-line) putting us potentially in the exact same position as late April 2020. As you see, BTC was also within a Channel Up at the time that eventually broke above the 12H MA200.
However due to the instant recovery on the March 13 2020 bottom and the price jump attributed to the expectation that the trillions of USD printed will keep the economy moving from the lockdowns, that Channel Up was formed much higher than the current one, which is technically a Bear Cycle bottom. Typically their transition is slower. I have plotted the 2020 recovery sequence on today's price action in order to make one possible projection.
As you see, many aspects on the two patterns are similar: both had their MA50 and MA200 cross three times before the bottom, both got rejected on the 0.786 Fibonacci, their Lower Lows were roughly on a -35° angle and both rebounded on the 1W MA300 (red trend-line).
Do you think we will have a similar recovery to that of post COVID? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section below!
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community!
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