BTC plan for summer

16 juin

BTC prices have been consolidating below the monthly resistance for almost 3 months. This is bullish.

In my opinion, a bull flag is being formed. My strategy is as follows:

1. If a monthly candle closes above the monthly resistance trendline, it's a BUY signal.
   
2. A better BUY would be when price falls to the lower range of the current flag, around $57000 - $59000.
   

Actually, I'm waiting dips at lower prices to increase my bags. But I'm ready for both scenarios.

My mid-term take profit will be around $100,000 when prices hit the long-term weekly trendline. For long-term target, I've already posted my analysis (see link below) with cycle target around $120,000 but this would be ajusted to higher one. I may update this long-term analysis in the future.

Disclaimer:
This analysis is based on my personnal views and is not a financial advice. Risk is under your control.

18 juin

Note

Update: BTC is heading the range' lows

21 juin

Note

Down side is still on-going. I expect a weekly close at $63000

24 juin

Note

Latest Weekly candle closed at $63100 as expected. Actually, this is my weekly support level. Now BTC continues the downway to the expected liquidity area. I'll wait for reaction around $57000-$59000 range to decide if I'll open Longs.

24 juin

Note

BTC has been reaching the Liquidity level. I've bought BTC around $59000 and will add more if price goes to $57000.
Other altcoins are added in my bag: FET, INJ, PEPE, KNC at this level.

25 juin

Note

BTC bounces back when touching the liquidity area. If the current weekly candle closes above $64200, it's a very bullish signal.
If not, a revisit of the support of the channel with possible deviation can still happen in the coming weeks. This is another opportunity to increase your bags.
Be ready for both scenarios.

28 juin

Note

BTC hasn't made any big move since the drop to 60000s

28 juin

Note

In low Time-Frame, we can have this view :

30 juin

Note

BTC was rejected by the daily resistance on Friday and now it is retesting this level.
If successful, BTC will look for $64000 (weekly and daily resistance). But in my opinion, another scenario would also happen in case of rejection: BTC would revisit the $57000 area. Next week would be highly volatile:

1 juil.

Note

The resistance of $62000 was broken. Let's wait for retest to confirm if this break-out:

1 juil.

Note

Along with the view above, what concerns me is the CME Gaps $60600 and $59600

3 juil.

Note

As I concerned, BTC has been falling from 64000s toward the CME gaps.
The first gap is being filled

3 juil.

Note

The false break-out happen and the distribution scenario is confirmed (as expected)
I added the event "UT in Phase B" to the chart of 1st July.

4 juil.

Note

The distribution is being absorbed at 57000s. I accumulated more BTC at this price as planned

7 juil.

Note

Price of BTC is now at the expected Buy zone although the latest movement was very tricky:

7 juil.

Note

In 1D TF, here below is the view. My invalidation level of this scenario is the weely support. Let keep a close eye on this price $56200

9 juil.

Note

BTC is consolidating (again) after the sell-off last week. I need more data but this consolidating would be a re-distribution. I'd canceled all Longs and ready for the worse case (and this will cancel the original view - accumulation at this price)

14 juil.

Note

With the latest data, in my opinion the local bottom is $56000-$60000. Sell-off from German Gov is well aborbed. Let's be patient for a next leg-up $70000 -> $73000 -> $99000, as planned. Any revisit of the liquidity zone is an opportunity to increase current bags.
Here is the view in 1W TF: A good weekly candle shows that buy pressure is present.

Here is the view in 1D TF:

16 juil.

Note

Update: BTC has risen +11% two last days. Next key levels are still $70000 - $73000 and $99000.

16 juil.

Note

What concerns me is the CME gaps at $57900. Today, news on MT_Gox deposit for distribution happens again. We need to pay attention with these two point.
I'll add my bags if BTC revisit the range's low.

19 juil.

Note

BTC is consolidating below the key level (1D TF) at around $65200.
Current support is EMA 50D. I'll keep an eye on the CME gap at $58000 also (MT_Gox distribution would dump BTC to this level)

20 juil.

Note

The key level $65200 was successfully broken. This price is now the current support.
The first target $70000 is on the table.

20 juil.

Note

For Long (short-term) trade, $70000 is a strong resistance. So secure your trades in profit and pay attention with late Longs.

24 juil.

Note

$70000 was not reached. BTC was rejected by the channel's resistance. Let's see how strong are the supports MA-120D and EMA-50D, facing to on-going MT_gox distribution. It's not a good moment to Long or Short in my opinion. Both side (up to $70000 or down to the CME gap at $58000) are possible now.

28 juil.

Note

BTC's arrived to the range's high of the channel. +20% since the proposed Entry (around $56000). Take profit with altcoins' Longs is not a bad idea. For next week, here are some highlights:
- CME gap at $65800
- US Interest Rate on 31st July

30 juil.

Note

As mentioned earlier, the CME gap at $65,800 was filled today. So, what's next? This is where it gets tricky. We need to focus on another key event this week: the US interest rate announcement tomorrow, July 31st. Expect volatility.

1 août

Note

BTC dumped after FED decision on interest rate (unchanged). Today, we can see that buying dips happens and BTC seems to close above the EMA50D. Short-term bounce of the whole market is expected the next days and BTC would restest $70000. Let's see.
In my opinion, good buying price is around the CME gaps ($58000) or when BTC break the current channel.

2 août

Note

All markets suffered today with fear of weakened economy and recession. BTC broke the strong EMA 50D support. My guess now is the CME gap at around $58000

5 août

Note

What a day. BTC lost -15% during the day (due to fear of war, recession). The scenario is no longer valid. I will update BTC chart.
Thank for following this analysis.