Where did the money go? Where are the buyers?

31 janv. 2019

BTCUSD most people seem to be bearish now, I hate that. I was a full bear in 2018 and the drop from 6K came when almost everyone was still bullish and talking about 6K support, mining costs and the next bull run.
Almost everyone is wrong. Now the technicals tell me BTC should go lower but almost everyone seems to agree.
There seems to be enough buy support (see vcdepth.io/coins/bitcoin-btc) but no real movement. Volume is drying up again.
It looks like each major leg down means large amounts of capital just leaves. Thus removing liquidity. I would think a big push up would surprise many but be relatively cheap. On the other hand longs on Bitfinex are still in the lead, add to that the Bitfinex 2.5% premium in BTC price.
So I'm not so sure a big drop is coming soon, I do however think we could see a drop to $ 3250. Where I expect the price to either bounce and start a small relief rally, maybe up to $3600 / $3800 OR the next drop will go deeper than what people expect just like it did on the 6K drop.
A bigger drop in price than what people expect means enough bids are available, and longs are opened too soon, which could push price down further. I hope this is the case, I'd rather see the big drop sooner than later. If we rally up first that would only extend the bearmarket with a couple of months.
I'll be exiting most of my short positions on $3250, leave some open on perpetual and perhaps start opening longs on the June contract as a hedge, because of the 3% backwardation. But position size will be thus that it would survive a drop to $2000 or lower, where I have the option of significantly adding to my June long to greatly lower my entry point.

31 janv. 2019

Note

Closed my short position because of vanEck EFT news coindesk.com/cboe-re-files-vaneck-solidx-bitcoin-etf-proposal

This will probably pump the price a bit, trapping some more longs

Also Bitmex shorts/longs ratio was a bit high with 54% shorts

Looking to re-enter my shorts on 3500, with option to add on 3550 / 3660 afterwards I'll just wait if it goes higher, probably consider stoplosses around 3800 or at least decrease position there, because I don't think price will make it that far but for those who are patient lower prices will come eventually.

1 févr. 2019

Note

Stop triggered, back in my short positions, apparently no fucks were given that CBEO refiled the ETF, I was kinda expecting that 'news' to be used to pump the price a bit more but there was only a very small reaction.

1 févr. 2019

Note

After a small rally today to me it's clear we are not going higher. This was a pathetic attempt on low volume, there's massive amounts of resistance up ahead.

Now the day is not over yet, fridays notorioulsy can have high volatility with 5% swings in minutes. But it looks like nobody really cares and larger capital is not buying.

We saw this one the last touch of 6000. Nobody really knew that we lost all support until price started coming down. There's lots of air underneath the current price and lots of resistance above us.

Still hoping 3200 can bounce the price but I ultimately would prefer a big drop to new lows, at least then we will get to see some bigger volatility when greater capital is getting back in.

8 févr. 2019

Note

Both my $3600 and $3700 numbers have been reached and with that my short position increased. As I mentioned in the first post I was reluctant and looking to exit my shorts on $3250 which I thought could have been reached, because the sentiment was much worse and social media was calling for much lower targets.

As mentioned in my second post $3800 would be a spot where I would consider decreasing my short position.

Patience is a virtue.

I have removed $3250 as a price point where I would exit my short, today's price action wiped that target for a bounce off the table. $3300 was the point where it bounced, so now I'm looking for the next big lower support number, which I believe is $1800