Short

Mis à jour

Big H&S Bitcoin will fail, should see acceleration down

After the drop to 9300, where many people were expecting to get an buy opportunity around the 9000, it did not reach that level. The drops were starting to get smaller and we could slowly see buyers entering the market. You can see this more clearly in my previous chart about Bitcoin. That blue circle, which you can also see here, has reached it's target more or less. Within that circle BTC had formed a big decending wedge, also seen as a big bull flag by many. If it's a wedge, that it has reached it's target already around the previous high around 11.200.

The bulls are seeing a big inverse H&S, in combination with that big flag/wedge, the only way is up from here. Clearly i don't agree with that.

What i see is, BTC is not making healthy corrections, going up to fast for to long sometimes. If it's manipulation, (forced) short covering or just buyers getting to greedy and jumping into fast, that's just guessing.
For the short term, i have an easy entry point and stop price. I have have build up a short position between the 11.000 and 11.100. I have my stop placed just above previous high at 11.180. Because i think it should not get above that level anymore, than the small rising wedge it made yesterday stays as the high of this move up from the 9300 and makes it the turning point. What i also see, it's taking to long to break the 11.200 and make an attack on the 11.700 and also breaking the neckline of the big inverse H&S from the 6K levels.
As you can see in the yellow circle, the highs are getting less higher high, so it's making the same pattern as the blue circle on the lows.

What i also see and wont ignore, is the bull flag it has made from the 10.230 towards the 11.180. Than we should see a break out and a big rally up with volume any minute now. And than it will break that yellow pattern and destroys my short term theory.

The bigger picture: The big inverse H&S from 6K, i just dont think the buyers will make it and so making it a failed H&S, which should also mean that we should see an acceleration in the other direction, that direction is down of course. I see these failed H&S many times on the shorter time frames when volatility increases. On the hourly and daily charts we don't seem them so often of course. But it still fit's the bigger picture, that we are not done yet with the big correction from the 20K high. When i look around me, there are less and less people talking about crypto's lately, i am talking about all the new money that came in from december/januari from people with zero experience with stock or crypto markets. So i just don't see the whole crypto market making a new impulse wave up again. The Alts confirm this from their moves the last few weeks, many are outperformed by Bitcoin, meaning there is no real new money flowing into these markets. Newcomers don't buy Bitcoin, they buy the Alt coins, because they should offer much more potential in the eyes of the unexperienced. A move to 12.000/12.500 could also be possible, making a big bull trap with a failed break of the big H&S neckline. If it gets above the 13K, i will probably flush my long term theory in the toilet :)

Note

Zoom in of that picture, it clearly shows some bullish signs for the short term, but we all know, sometimes the market does exactly the opposite, i am sticking with my longer term view :)

Note

This small bull flag could trigger the bigger one

Note

Here it goes, we should an acceleration up for this flag to reach it's target.

I am ready to accept that i have moved in a bit to early and close with a very small loss and get in again if it does not really accelerate up and starts dropping again

Note

Even if we would drop from here, it could still make this sort of pattern, we have seen it several times the last month during the whole rally up. It is not really accelerating yet after it broke that small flag.

Note

There was no believe in this small bull flag, no acceleration as i said. Of course this does not mean that we will only drop from here. The update above is still an option. If it would drop below the 10.800/10.700, that would give a first serious confirmation

Note

Looks like they are not going to let it drop, making another attempt at the 11200

Note

This is probably going to push further, unless we see a double top here, but i think it's very unlikely now

Note

I got out

Note

We should see an acceleration now, buying and people who were short and porbably had a stop around this level

Note

I just went short again, at 11475

Note

Already 80 points in my favor, if it drops a bit more, i will lower my entry level for a free trade

Note

What you see here, is a small H&S that will probably fail and accelerate up. BTC shows allot of these during a rally up

Note

So far, almost identical to the 11700 top, where it was sleeping and going sideways at the high, and than all of a sudden, a bid and fast drop, lets see if this was part 1 of that drop

Note

It's clear, Bitfinex is trying to pull the other exchanges up, having the highest price. A few hours ago Bitstamp gave a first signal to which direction it wanted to go, (see the spike down with the volume spike), but Bitfinex just kept it going sideways again ans slowly up. Probably some players who did not yet unload their long positions at the high and could not let it make a big drop yet.

We are absolutely not there yet, i want to see a minimal drop of 400/500 points, these 100 to 300 point drops get picked up way to easy. We should see a small bear flag of this drop and it should continue down to break that first important support level around the 11.100/11.150

Note

Want to keep seeing it below that line, because otherwise chances increase allot that we go sideways again and slowly up again

Note

So they took out the speed of this drop, almost killing the bear flag. It has to stay below that red area, otherwise we could just go up again, or at least the drop will take much longer

Note

When we look at my previous chart, we can see it dropped out of the blue circle. But ofcourse it's a pattern with a very wide margin, a drop below the 11.100 would confirm it has dropped out

Bitcoin drop to 9800, than towards 12K (trading updates!)

Note

Looks allot like the flag when it made that strange big drop a week ago. We are now at that green area, so we could see another small wave up

Note

This is now

Note

It started with this candle, one order had set the price in a blink 40 points higher, it was with low volume though. Not look at the spike at Bitfinex to 11500, while the others got stuck at 11.400,

Note

Thats why i said, should stay below the red area, no it's going to take much longer, go sideways are just move up again if it breaks the 11500

Note

The chart here at TV does not show this strange spike here. The third one that has happened here at Bitfinex. A big buy order looking very suspicious as support buying.

Note

I would like to see a drop below that blue are now

Note

Now we should stay below that red area, if we do within the next hour, almost 80% sure we break that rising trendline/wedge) with also the small H&S you can see with the neckline around 11250 which has a target around 11.000

Note

Here we can see that earlier chart again, with that blue area, it bounced off it an 2 hours ago, so far it has retested as an resistance now

Note

With the comment before this update, where i talk about the small H&S, i meant to add this chart

Note

Now to keep the speed of tis drop, it has to stay below this lower red resistance, i am not chearing yet, but we could see an big acceleration, a big from the next few hours, if my view is right about the medium term picture

Note

That orange area is the minimal target of the wedge (the smaller one). H&S target is also not reached yet. We have to stay below the 11.300!!

Note

Buyers are still trying to push it back above that neckline again.

Note

Stubborn people, the ones who are still buying here :). The 11.000 is begin really being defended. The round numbers are not the real support or resistance, it's always 100 to 200 points below and above it. Like nog it's 11.100/11.200 and 10.800/10.900.
80% chance we will drop below the 11.000, hopefully we will see an acceleration. BUT, it's weekend now so anything can happen of course. I have lowered the stop for half my short position at around the 11.250, because i have a big short position and want to reduce the risk and lock in some profit if they do choose to delay the drop and go higher again.

Could be my last update for the day.

Note

I want to see this blue circle break within the hour, otherwise chances increase the buyers will turn it up again

Note

Now it's trying to get back in again, delaying the drop

Note

I wrote a big story, but i mis clicked and it's gone now, dont feel like righting it all over again. Summary:
BTC should have dropped below the 11.000, i think the stakeholders are afraid that if it drops below that price, that selling pressure could become to high maybe. I saw many support buy orders in the bid this afternoon and allot of wash trading also. I am just convinced that it was mostly manipulation, it's nothing new ofcourse, but this time i wont turn long, because i dont trust it all! We could go higher of course, but i think it's only delaying the big drop.

I can tell you this, the wedge which had a target at around the 10800, it's maybe one of the few in my 20 years of trading, that did not reach it's target! They have a 95% certainty, i have made most of my money with that pattern. The wedge is still valid of course, only a break of 11.600 would destroy it.

Anyway, we have seen again why lowering a stop is important sometimes, and locking in some profit early to reduce risk. I have still made a profit (even though not much left) but if i would have done nothing i would have made loss now.

I will only trade when i see another short opportunity. Unless i see some clear (natural) bullish signs.

Note

Even now, Bitstamp makes another strange high volume spike down, twice as big in volume and even bigger in price.

Note

But what confirms the fact that BTC is being manipulated, because Bitfinex is pulling /dragging the other exchanges up. We all now, even though it's the biggest exchange, it's probably even the most corrupt one. That's also nothing new, we have seen it many times before. From the drops of 15K, 13K and even 17K, many times the price of Bitfinex was much lower than the rest. My followers know how many times i had mentioned this and that was the main reason that i was very comfortable with my big short positions at those times. Now it's not the first time Bitfinex has the highest price, and chances are bigger the rest will follow. For the ones who don't remember the moves BTC at the end of januari. Bitfinex was trading almost 200 points above the rest. Making a bullish break of that big triangle, after many many attempts getting above the 11.700 at that time. Everything had a green light when it broke the 11.800/12.000. But within a day or 2 we made that crash towards the 9200.

Note

Looks like it's about to break upwards, should see a spike with volume

Note

It is taking quite long though, so it's so no real conviction yet. If it doesn't break up within an hour, probably make another drop. What seems to be a legit option, is a drop towards the 11300 to make an upwards triangle. But there is always a chance it can drop out of it, but that chance is much smaller

Note

I am short again at 11520

Note

I have added some more at 11560 (total small position), will only make it bigger if we drop below the 11K. Stop now around 11.700

Note

Bitcoin is sleeping, glad i did not stay at home today :) I will try and post a new chart later. There is something i want to show you, a friend had send me a link of a youtube video, it's the first i have seen of this guy, it seems very legit and he confirms many things i have also talked about lately, about manipulation, forced short covering, stop hunting. I would say, watch the video, he explains it quite well, so you probably understand better what i am talking about all the time. I will show you guys a few examples where it has happened what he talks about

youtube.com/watch?v=zHEpc9BcwsM

Note

There are 2 options here, at this resistance level. I have a similar feeling that i had when it was trading between the 8K and 9K. Obviously i was wrong than but when it broke out i had no problems turning long because. The same could be happening now, that i am to bearish and stubborn :). But difference now is, we are 3000 points higher, hesitation to break out is much higher. Those few strange big drops at Bitstamp. I watched the orders yesterday for a while at the 11550/11600 range. There just were allot of big sell orders at those levels. Many orders of 100 and 200 BTC with steps of only $10 between them. Each time it would drop below the 11550 again and turn up later on, again you would see big sell orders of 100 and 200 BTC. So i am almost convinced that it's a distribution fase. Probably the same people who did not let it drop below the 11.100 a few days ago (when i was convinced it would go to 10.800).
Only problem is, who are these people. The biggest stakeholders of Bitcoin giving up and cashing out while they still can? That's a bit far fetched but not impossible because the whole market is only looking up lately and are extremely bullish. Or are these just some big traders, those F....ng hedge funds, who raped the stock market for years and have increased in numbers allot lately in the crypto market. Hedge funds just want to get money from small traders, they don't want to destroy this easy market. So if it's them, that it does not mean we will see massive crash to 1000 or whatever. If it's the stakeholders cashing out, than BTC is just f...cked and it will never recover. So we could still get above the 11.700 and around the 12K (forced short covering) but i just cant see it getting above the 13K again, never ever if you ask me.
In the most paranoid version :) it would be almost certain that we brake the 11.700 and 12K because we can all guess of course, those levels there will be a massive amount of short positions that will close (and therefore become buy orders)

Note

I just finished writing, and there we see this strange move again. I told myself i would add to my short position after finishing this story. Now i missed my opportunity :(

botje11

Aussi sur:

Clause de non-responsabilité

Les informations et les publications ne sont pas destinées à être, et ne constituent pas, des conseils ou des recommandations en matière de finance, d'investissement, de trading ou d'autres types de conseils fournis ou approuvés par TradingView. Pour en savoir plus, consultez les Conditions d'utilisation.

botje11

Aussi sur: