BTCUSD what a 2017 trip to the moon might look like

22 déc. 2016

The arrows and pink triangle are just wild estimations...but you get the idea, we continue on up as FOMO kicks in to test the old ATH...then people get short...then we make a small new high to take out the early shorters...then we come back down to create the illusion of a H+S top. This also will create the illusion of a double top on the zoomed out 1 week view. People get bearish again as the price corrects back down, consolidate a bit in some type of triangle, then boom we continue on up for new highs.

22 déc. 2016

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This is almost the slow version...I wouldn't be surprised if we don't correct as low as shown...and break out of this theoretical triangle faster than shown on my guess.

22 déc. 2016

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Here is a faster version:

But really, the charts are less important than the sequence of events.

11 janv. 2017

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6 févr. 2017

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21 févr. 2017

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Forgot to update this one the other day, when bitfinex broke 1070 I got bullish again, as evidenced in my other recent bitcoin chart. This is heading to test ath's and may indeed play out as originally charted. Bitcoin making new highs and then going all the way back down to 6xx-7xx are you crazy!

Well, it seems the market is overestimating an etf approval: news.bitcoin.com/needham-probability-of-approval-for-a-bitcoin-etf-very-low/ Could it be approved? Of course. Is it likely? No. The SEC is not out to do Bitcoin any favors, and from their perspective, bitcoin is insanely risky, the winks just added the addendum for risk of hardfork recently, even I as an informed bitcoiner am scared of a hard fork. That's not to much other risks such as the custodian getting hacked, etc. Yes i know bitcoin, and if the proper security methods are used its perfectly safe, yet bitfinex was just hacked this year. I am looking at this from their perspective not mine.

Anyway. Plentyyyyy more to be bullish about bitcoin outside of the ETF, yet the market seems to be focused on it. You could argue the price was due for a correction on that 1w doji a week ago, and everyone started buying anyway in anticipation of an approval. That certainly seemed to be the sentiment in the chatbox, and there seems to be a wild overestimation among traders as well, one trader told me he thought it was a 90% chance it would be approved. Sure just one dude take it with a grain of salt but you get the point.

So, if there is irrational buying now, there can just as easily buy irrational selling on a rejection, and then some added panic after. Further, it really seems everyone and their mother is in btfd mode, its hard to find any bears out there. Bitcoin will certainly have its bubble, but if history has any precedent here, they usually come about after some event that makes the majority bearish. Could an etf rejection be 2017 equivalent of the 2013 silk road event? Stay tuned and find out. Who knows. Should be very interesting to watch how it plays out.

21 févr. 2017

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Not to mention, who knows if we will get any more surprises out of the PBOC.

21 févr. 2017

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Clarification: I said silk road but what I really meant was Apri-May of 2013 when Bitcoin peaked around $250, the silk road event was only a day or two. Something like that is possible as well but not what I meant and not what the chart is more similar to.

22 févr. 2017

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Text analysis in the chart:

8 mars 2017

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Just adding this recently published chart here for the most recent analysis of the price:

11 mars 2017

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Looks like my etf analysis (see text update above) was pretty spot on : )

10 mai 2017

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If you go back to when I first published this chart, you find the "faster version" ...not bad, here is another look: