BTC predictions for the coming weeks

9 juin 2018

Hello everyone,

First TA published and generally a noob in trading, this TA is not a trading advise, just for ideas exchange and receive feedback.

I will describe the scenario I consider the most likely, represented by all those little arrows, it is a boring sequence of testing all resistances up to 8800-8900 (0.618 Fib) and each time testing support which was previously the resistance.
What would validate this sequence is an increase of volume each time we are forming higher highs, and lower volumes each times we test support.
We can expect a failure at each step as the rally is so weak so far, but especially at fib levels.
What would happen if we reach this stop? There is two possibilities, either we break this resistance or we are rejected.
To anticipate a rejection, what I would keep an eye on, is strength of the test, high volume but no big price movement to the top: effort>result, that would mean distribution is starting, that would be confirmed by a second weaker attempt that would form a double top. If that happen, I expect BTC to go down hard see the 6K.

I will update with a bigger picture analysis.

9 juin 2018

Note

9 juin 2018

Note

Explanations on the funny looking above chart (following the numbers in bubbles of the chart) in:

1. This blue arrow going down is the same as the retracement 1:1 of the double top, not the scenario I put the highest probability on. In yellow circle, we could follow the same pattern as end of March/beginning of April. As there is no high buying volume currently, there is as well not high selling volume to bring us there without a big fat FUD.

2. Here it will be the formation of lower high, staying or even breaking a little the triangle (bull trap), of course, there is a possibility to break it and continue the bull run, just need to watch out for distribution. Target is the Fib 0.618, around 8800, it can be lower depending the time we take to get there, we can touch triangle later, that would mean lower ( around 8500).

3. My favorite option, after a rejection at the top of the triangle, it is a fast descent, panic sell off until 6500, a slowing down of selling volume between 6500 and 6000 (previous low of April and February), there is a test of the 6000 support at low volumes and a brief break out (bear trap) and a huge bounce and the beginning of strong rally.

4. This scenario is cruel, the composite operator decide to test once again Bitcoin's readiness for a mark up but bitcoin fail (FUD again), we go to the 4K, as for 1, if we go to the 4xxx, I would not expect a bounce but slow accumulation, meaning, sideways with low volumes for a long time.

Volume changes of selling or buying will be the best indications of the validity of these scenario.

Thanks for reading!

10 juin 2018

Note

First attempt rejected and now a dump.
We are going to test the 7100 support but I expect a bounce after, look at the divergence at 4h on RSI and CMF. If the RSI form a higher low at the next attempt, a short squeeze is likely. Let see if this bounce will bring us back to 7700.

10 juin 2018

Note

And the divergence at 1h.
Trade carefully, dangerous zone.

24 juin 2018

Note

Favorite option target hit!



What I see for the coming days and to validate a spring

26 juin 2018

Note

Let see if it goes to this box and bounce again