BTC Retracement to $30k levels. After US elections pump to $90k.
Bitcoin appears to be forming an inverse head and shoulders pattern on the larger timeframes. A potential drop to the 28k–32k range could mirror the corrections seen in previous bull runs, creating a textbook inverse head and shoulders pattern.
A price target of 90k is derived from the measured move of the previous post-drop rally, further supporting this bullish scenario.
Additionally, a smaller inverse head and shoulders pattern, formed between January 2022 and January 2024, has already played out, reaching its projected target. This reinforces the reliability of the pattern in the current market context.
Several key factors suggest that a pullback to the 30k region could be highly bullish:
1. The large inverse head and shoulders pattern suggests a potential move to 90k from 32k.
2. The 200 SMMA is expected to align with the
29K–30k range when BTC reaches that level.
3. The 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level is at 27.7k, with the golden zone around 36.5k.
4. On the weekly chart, the only occurrence of the "Three White Soldiers" pattern is within this price range. If no weekly candle closes below $30,250, it would be another strong bullish signal.
5. The previous bull market correction aligns with a current target of approximately 37k.
6. Notably, BTC has yet to experience a significant correction during this bull run.
In summary, a dip to around 28k, followed by a weekly close within the bullish Three White Soldiers price range (above 30k), would likely signal a continuation of the bullish trend and me opening a long term long.
However, the upcoming FOMC meeting on September 17-18th could introduce volatility. If rate cuts occur as expected, this has historically been a bearish event. Coupled with current global developments, it suggests BTC might be in a bear phase that could extend until after the 2024 U.S. presidential elections.
If former President Donald Trump isn't re-elected, the current bull run might be at risk. The U.S. government has discussed unrealized gains taxes for millionaires, which could drive wealthy investors away from risky assets like crypto.
Additionally, the market's sentiment appears overly bullish, with many top traders providing optimistic analyses despite bearish signals. This often precedes a market reversal.
I'm keen to hear your thoughts and ideas on this analysis—please share your perspectives!
A price target of 90k is derived from the measured move of the previous post-drop rally, further supporting this bullish scenario.
Additionally, a smaller inverse head and shoulders pattern, formed between January 2022 and January 2024, has already played out, reaching its projected target. This reinforces the reliability of the pattern in the current market context.
Several key factors suggest that a pullback to the 30k region could be highly bullish:
1. The large inverse head and shoulders pattern suggests a potential move to 90k from 32k.
2. The 200 SMMA is expected to align with the
29K–30k range when BTC reaches that level.3. The 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level is at 27.7k, with the golden zone around 36.5k.
4. On the weekly chart, the only occurrence of the "Three White Soldiers" pattern is within this price range. If no weekly candle closes below $30,250, it would be another strong bullish signal.
5. The previous bull market correction aligns with a current target of approximately 37k.
6. Notably, BTC has yet to experience a significant correction during this bull run.
In summary, a dip to around 28k, followed by a weekly close within the bullish Three White Soldiers price range (above 30k), would likely signal a continuation of the bullish trend and me opening a long term long.
However, the upcoming FOMC meeting on September 17-18th could introduce volatility. If rate cuts occur as expected, this has historically been a bearish event. Coupled with current global developments, it suggests BTC might be in a bear phase that could extend until after the 2024 U.S. presidential elections.
If former President Donald Trump isn't re-elected, the current bull run might be at risk. The U.S. government has discussed unrealized gains taxes for millionaires, which could drive wealthy investors away from risky assets like crypto.
Additionally, the market's sentiment appears overly bullish, with many top traders providing optimistic analyses despite bearish signals. This often precedes a market reversal.
I'm keen to hear your thoughts and ideas on this analysis—please share your perspectives!
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