$4billion Bitcoin super-mega-ultra-turbo bull

17 août 2017

I know this chart is utterly preposterous. read on at your peril, and purely for your entertainment

In This chart i'll be looking at a 10yr projection for bitcoin based on trend analysis and repeating patterns. I should probably go through some caveats first because i appreciate that such a high estimation for bitcoin value is frankly ridiculous, even if you are *the* most frothily rabid maximalist. so bear in mind:

1. I am not a good analyst or trader. i have profited by both luck and very simple trade sense. any chart i post will probably reflect this lack of knowledge/experience. constructive feedback is always welcomed.

2. the chart is logarithmic. the way i've used repeating bars has probably broken the scaling math somewhere, so maybe it *looks* kind of right, but it probably isn't

3. the chart goes off the edge of what TradingView will display, so the final target arrow is a bit guessy too. again, it *looks* right, but probably isn't

that out of the way, let's get on with the frothing and pseudo-analysis:

in the chart I've extended the assumed trend channel for bitcoin by adapting the pitchfork tool, which handily shows the upper and lower ranges for bitcoin bubbles, based on a rather excellent chart by a TV user who i won't embarrass by mentioning here, if they wish to self-identify in this er 'trading space' that's their lookout!). I've then taken that solid start, gone full retard, and assumed the pattern will repeat itself 3 more times, staying in channel, until it hit's what appears to be a target of 4billion. and that's the technical analysis. yeah, weak i know. there is no guarantee any pattern would repeat so exactly. if this is how you analyse charts, you should have a word with yourself. i know i am.

now lets go through the fundamentals (once more with feeling...)

bitcoin is designed to replace all the worlds M2 money supply. the 21million coin cap is intended to match the 21trillion in circulation and bank accounts. so 4 flippin' billion dollars for a single coin is impossible no? but what if there's more money by the time bitcoin gets there? money printing, despite being contrary to doctors orders, is still a thing, and will be for the foreseeable future. the trillionaires club in zimbabwe know how fast inflation can get out of control, and how far it can get. also cryptocurrencies themselves can exacerbate inflation when people will catch on to the obvious value proposition of going margin long on bitcoin (and thus simultaneously margin short on fiat) not on exchanges but with credit cards, cash and the internet. this wounds the fiat right in the value, increasing debasement of the currency and so leading to more money printing and inflation. should the market switch the other way, bitcoin does not suffer the same penalty because no inflation. it takes the price hit and volume flood like a good bank should and rolls on, storing up the pain to dish it back out to fiat after the correction. Governments have the option to cheat - to ban bitcoin - but bitcoin has inherited inclusive resilience from the www - you can only regulate the bits you can reach. and there are a lot of bits and bytes out of that reach

conclusion

ten years is a long time. we might all burn to a crisp in environmental or nuclear holocaust. Elon Musk might unlock the tesseract on nibiru and usher in the flying car utopia we were promised. realistically there is already a lot of stored pain for fiat lurking round the corner. bitcoin has a nearly a decade of proven reliability. at least this time someone thought to make a lifeboat everyone can use. at 4billion each, they're pretty comfy lifeboats, better get one now while they're still at that bargain discount price of just $4000 ;-)

afterthought

so i've set out my stall, come at me bro! tell me why we can't have $4000000000 bitcoin. especially i'd like to hear if i've gone wrong with this chart, as we're all here to learn. thanks for reading my ludicrously optimistic analysis