BTCUSD: How Low Can It Go?

11 août 2018

BTCUSD update: Price continues back to the 6K psychological support. As long as price stays above 5750, the bullish impulse structure is still intact. We will continue to evaluate price action around the major support area for stability and a reversal.

Earlier today on S.C., we texted a swing trade long idea to our members. Thanks to our simple filtering technique, the trade never triggered. This alone prevented a 300 point loss.

I bring this up because most inexperienced traders and investors do not realize that consistent performance over time includes a strong defense. This means not only cutting losses short, but avoiding would be losses all together.

Anyone can call a profitable trade, but if you can't keep the profit, then what's the point? The only one benefiting is your broker or exchange.

Everyone and their cousin is jumping onboard the bear train. The record high short interest alone is a telling sign. We look for these signs of extreme sentiment because this is where long term opportunity is often found.

At S.C., we evaluate probabilities first. Keep in mind price is still within a large magnitude .618 support zone that reaches as low as 4983. This means price can test below 5750 and still offer attractive longer term opportunities.

Our plan is to continue to accumulate inventory, but with extreme care. Since we have a small position from the mid 7Ks, there is no need to aggressively buy at the moment. Instead we will wait until more stringent criteria is met before making another purchase.

Why not get short? Besides not following the herd, we have a strict policy to avoid shorting these markets. The number one reason is leverage. To help minimize risk, we do not use leverage in these markets.

Beyond risk of an adverse move, there are risks that most traders do not consider like regulatory risk. Do not forget, the exchanges that facilitate the order flow in these markets regulate themselves. This means they can make up their own rules at their convenience.

Perfect example is the OKex's "claw back". This is where the shorts were responsible for paying back the exchanges extremely irresponsible margin liquidation debt. There's nothing worse than being penalized for taking the right side, especially when its to cover someone else's mistake.

In summary, we will continue to monitor the extreme sentiment and look to capitalize on the turn when the signs line up. We have no problem waiting, or if the market goes lower. If price manages to go below 5K, we will simply hold off from further accumulation, but we won't sell. We don't have to, because our size is well with the proportions of our portfolio's risk profile.

Price being in the middle of the largest support zone points to the higher probability of a reversal. And that is the side that we will prepare for, not react to the obvious. The crowd is usually wrong at tops and bottoms.