Week in a Glanc: ECB, Infrastructure plan, Inflation, Cryptoplus

14 juin 2021

The past week turned out to be quite positive in fundamental terms for the cryptocurrency market. The Basel Committee recognized cryptocurrency as an asset class, and El Salvador was the first in the world to recognize cryptocurrency as legal tender and demanded its adoption in all areas of business. In addition, ForUsAll Inc. (one of the 401 (k) investment management service providers) announced a deal with the institutional arm of Coinbase Global Inc, which will allow the company's clients to invest up to 5% of their 401 (k) contributions in Bitcoin, Ether, Litecoin and other cryptocurrencies...

However, all this did not help the mainstream cryptocurrencies, which continued to be under downward pressure. The materialization of the general discouragement was the latest information from the bookmakers, according to which the chances of Bitcoin dropping to $ 10,000 in 2021 are now 8/11 (implied probability 57.9%). While in mid-April the odds were 4/1, that is, 20%.

In general, the inability to grow positive is a very disturbing symptom.

But the crypto world was not the only crypt last week. The ECB announced the results of its last meeting. Markets were preparing internally for the first signs of monetary tightening. But the head of the ECB, Lagarde, said that now the problems are not so much inflation as the economic recovery, which could be damaged by tightening monetary policy. For the euro, the news, of course, is not positive, but for maintaining general optimism in the stock markets it is very suitable.

Another reason for the joy of buyers was the information that Democrats to Republicans in the United States formed a certain common vision of the infrastructure plan. So far, we are talking about the amount of $ 1.25 trillion. Moreover, the plan will not be financed by increasing taxes. Of course, there is still a long way to go before any final decision, but progress is evident.

From the positive news, it is worth noting the information that in the first quarter of 2021, the GDP of the G 20 returned to the pre-pandemic level. Yes, this does not apply to all participants (Britain, for example, is still in a confident minus - 6.1%), but in general, we can state a return to the past economic reality.

So the new records of US stock indices look relatively logical in this light. Relatively because the prices are prohibitively high.