BTCUSD Update

25 mai 2018

Finally got a higher low on the 1H, although no higher highs as yet. Candlesticks forming up as an inverse H&S with declining volume and StochRSI looking healthy. A few intermediate challenges though: price is below the Ichimoku (doubled the settings recently to reduce the noise) and the 50MA, so a breakout from these levels is heavily dependent on volume if we hope to avoid a dead cat bounce. A look at the 2018 trend on the 4H clearly shows a downtrend with rapidly declining volume, suggesting that sellers who accumulated during the Fall 2017 run (ahead of futures launch) are running out of equity (spot BTC) for the shorts. The large intermittent spikes have been attributed to the Mt. Gox trustee and the legal requirement for episodic liquidation of the holdings to repay investors from the hack. Together, that suggests the downward momentum is trailing off, and a squeeze of the MAs and candles within the Bollinger Bands (if you use them, regular settings) is imminent. There is some additional room to fall but 7k is the absolute floor here, where price would be resting on the 2018 support to complete a classical three drives pattern that is consistent with the trailing momentume described A breakout would set a target at ~$8150 but that $8000 sell wall on GDAX and POLO is will make for a good fight. Beating these levels confirms a bull trap is beaten again, and the extension target remains 10.4k after with a 9.6k retest must hold up. NB: Forming a new low beneath the head of the inverted H&S would make 7k inevitable so I'd place bids there (+/- $150) just in case