$BTC/USD - D - [TA] Fibonacci Seq./Gann Fan Value Extrapolation

4 févr. 2018

Parameters:

• Trough: ~$970
  Peak: ~$19,600
  Fibonacci Time Zone interval: 8 days
  Gann Fans: Based upon a 45 degree angle, trough to peak and peak to trough
  Fibonacci Circle: From trough to peak
  Scale: Log, no auto scale, 20/20/20 margin
  Price/bar ratio: 0.0047485
  
  

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Predictions
On the Fibonacci time zone, we are shown dramatic price changes per time zone. I believe since we have nearly fully retaced, the value should increase again.
Based on previous data, we can see that there is a slight dip before entering it. It might be the same the other wise.
ON

I've noticed that the current downtrend of BTC can be either two things: a downtrending channel or a falling wedge. I obviously prefer the latter, but I cannot chart a falling wedge that I like.

All the tools used are based on the Fibonacci Sequence, sans the Ganns fans. I usually use indicators such as overlaid indicators and RSI/OBV, but I felt like all these were unneeded since the drawing tools I will be using create their own supports.
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Right now is yet another crucial time for BTC. If we break the 38.20% line without any hammer candles, I am expecting a free fall to the 50% retracement, ~$5,000. I want to believe this is our true bottom, based upon tthe support given by the Gann fans intersecting and, retracement. But if we look back to MtGox, it even retraced further under the 50% after a another Fibonacci time zone begun. Spooky!

Because our value exploded [artificially] in 2017, the Fibonacci circle cannot provide support like it does for stocks; instead, we end up with extremely high volatility and a ~$5,600 bottom until we can breach the next Fibonacci circle line.


Explanation of the tools used. This may be skipped or critiqued.

• Fibonacci circle: This was drawn from trough to peak (~$930 -> ~$1950); As you can see, the inner circles were used as supports and resistances; however, because the value jumped so quickly, we aren't afforded the luxury of circle support, only FIbonacci retacement levels. This means we can face many rejections back down to the previous support level, whether that be ~$8,500 or ~$5,600.
  
  Fibonacci Retracement: Throgh to peak, essential tool of traders. Predefines future supports and resistances; can be used to find bottoms or ATHs.
  
  Fibonacci Time Zone: 8 day interval between 0 and 1. I lined it up wth major market movement, with its starting point in a period of high voliatility,
  
  Fibonacci Circle: trough to peak/ till based on the fib sequence; each upcming line is resistance, while the lind before it support.
  
  Gann Fans I verified they were 45 degrees and didn't move the scale afterwards. 1x1 lines were not held, looks like the 1x2 on the top Gann will be new support. Looks good for going side ways at$ $8,000 for now
  
  Volume: A simple way to determine market action, sentiment, and trend.
  

Thoughts?

4 févr. 2018

Note

Seems like Gann fans still don't work. I think I will use Gann Square Fixed next time so it will scale correctly.