Bitcoin in a 350$ range downward Channel
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(Bitfinex Prices)
On the left Side of the Chart you can see my former Analysis from the 13th January. What are my takeaways from the last 2.5 Weeks:
1. I didn't expect the down move on January 13 - just Minutes after I published my Idea. But we moved back into the channel 22h later.
2. I expected the Up-move to happen earlier. Instead of 14/15 January the Up-Move happened on Saturday 19th.
3. Expected a Wick up to 3880$ or even 4000$. Halted exactly at 3880$, so it wasn't a really strong move.One day later we had a down move to 3570$.
So what happened since then: 1) A (fake) breakdown and horrible Wick to scare Longs on Jan22. 2) Wick Up on Jan26. 3) Slow and steady downtrend toward 3420$.
We saw some resistance there, followed by the current, small up move which seems to fail at this Moment. But it could still go higher towards 3600$ and some Alts are pumping too. Personally I expect that this up move will fail spectacularly and will be followed by a brutal breakdown towards 3200
Because:
- Volume is still very low. There is no fresh money incoming, just no interest out there to buy at even this low levels.
- Long/Short Ratio - still to many Longs. Before every major breakdown Shorts were at a lower level.
- 4h Channel seems to build strong resistance to the upper side - but of course also for the downside. Breaking one of them will be followed by a major pump or dump. The last days are telling us that a dump is more possible (as we are in Crypto - the more obvious scenario does not have to play out of course).
After that breakdown: Small recovery - and then diving below 3000$ in March / April. Low in Summer around 2000$.
If adaption, regulation, decentralization and public interest looks better in autumn, the bear market may be over but unless none of them changes dramatically there is no reason this centralized coin - owned by some whales - has a future.
On the left Side of the Chart you can see my former Analysis from the 13th January. What are my takeaways from the last 2.5 Weeks:
1. I didn't expect the down move on January 13 - just Minutes after I published my Idea. But we moved back into the channel 22h later.
2. I expected the Up-move to happen earlier. Instead of 14/15 January the Up-Move happened on Saturday 19th.
3. Expected a Wick up to 3880$ or even 4000$. Halted exactly at 3880$, so it wasn't a really strong move.One day later we had a down move to 3570$.
So what happened since then: 1) A (fake) breakdown and horrible Wick to scare Longs on Jan22. 2) Wick Up on Jan26. 3) Slow and steady downtrend toward 3420$.
We saw some resistance there, followed by the current, small up move which seems to fail at this Moment. But it could still go higher towards 3600$ and some Alts are pumping too. Personally I expect that this up move will fail spectacularly and will be followed by a brutal breakdown towards 3200
Because:
- Volume is still very low. There is no fresh money incoming, just no interest out there to buy at even this low levels.
- Long/Short Ratio - still to many Longs. Before every major breakdown Shorts were at a lower level.
- 4h Channel seems to build strong resistance to the upper side - but of course also for the downside. Breaking one of them will be followed by a major pump or dump. The last days are telling us that a dump is more possible (as we are in Crypto - the more obvious scenario does not have to play out of course).
After that breakdown: Small recovery - and then diving below 3000$ in March / April. Low in Summer around 2000$.
If adaption, regulation, decentralization and public interest looks better in autumn, the bear market may be over but unless none of them changes dramatically there is no reason this centralized coin - owned by some whales - has a future.
Note
Touched the upper Resistance Channel of a tighter 3hours downwards Channel twice - once at 2am and the second one just minutes ago. Both (small and weak) attempts rejected.Note
Note
Still inside the descending triangle. Could move up now towards 3520$ and then down again. I think will see a decision in the next 24 - 48 h.Ordre annulé
Btc broke out to the upper side. Ltc pumped heavy and Btc and others followed - had a nice 300$ move. Bought my shorts back around 3500 some hours before the pump because the performance of Ltc scared me - was the right decision. Now taking some profit and waiting for the next signs.
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