BTCUSD: Bullish Price Action But Unattractive Location?

30 avr. 2018

BTCUSD update: Price is fluctuating within a reversal zone defined by the 9861 boundary level. The fact that price does not reject this level quickly can be interpreted as a sign of strength but being in an unattractive location along with no trade signal prevents us from issuing a buy signal. Even if price appears to by going higher.

Price is still fluctuating above the bullish trend line but alone, that is not a reason to justify taking a risk. The purpose of a trade setup is to provide a visual representation of a market condition that offers a specific and repetitive advantage. Setups help to filter out randomness in our trading performance and also help prevent the typical reactionary trade that is so common to the market herd. And right now in this market, there is no setup.

As I have written before, reactive trading that results in a profit is nothing more than reinforcement of ineffective behavior. That same trade over a large number of repetitions will result in an overall loss in the long run. That is why even if this market goes higher from this point, it is a losing proposition because of the potential future losses that will result from this ineffective behavior or bad habit that you will be reinforcing.

8514 which is the .382 of the recent bullish structure is the nearest level that we are waiting for in order to go long again. Price has to produce a reversal pattern there, otherwise again there will be no reason to take risk.

In summary, until 9861 is taken out and a new higher low formation is established, this market does not offer any attractive opportunities in terms of reward/risk at the moment. Being in a reversal zone increases the chances that this market will pullback even though that often happens much faster at levels such as these. Don't let greed drive you into reactive trading even if the market goes higher without you. You may turn a profit this time, but the next 8 times you attempt to trade a similar situation, you will give back your profit and then some. Opportunities in financial markets are infinite, while your capital is not. Missing a market move is only emotionally painful, as long as you let your emotions drive your decisions. Know your levels, know your setup and wait, that alone will put you in a more advantageous position over the herd in the long run.

Questions and comments welcome.