4940 on Nov 15

2 oct. 2018

I'm not predicting BTC will exactly hit this mark. I am just saying that datapoint on this chart is very interesting. First, I found a trendline on the 5 year log chart by connecting as many points as possible. Next, I created the downward wedge on the 4 hour regular (not log) chart. The apex is on $4780 USD, which is exactly at the .786 retrace of Elliot wave cycle wave 1. Zooming back out to the 5 year log chart we see that the trendline cuts darn close to the apex of the downward wedge, and actually intersects with the bottom trendline of the downward wedge on November 15 with a value of $4940 USD. As it turns out $4940 is the 50% fibonacci mark by using the fibonacci extension tool with origin at the top of cycle wave 1, bottom at low point of February 2018 (first abc down wave), and top back at the top of the downward wedge origin.

What is even more interesting is that November 15 is the start of a 30 day cycle and is the exact halfway point of the next 60 day cycle, starting on October 15.

There are a number of possible patterns in the BTC chart that I have investigated, including a descending triangle and symmetrical triangle. I cannot say with any certainty that BTC will start cycle wave 3 following November 15; however it seems clear that November 15 may mark a point where volume will regain a surge. If support breaks at the 4940 and then the 4780 levels, it would make sense that BTC could go to the 2800-3000 USD level. It seems like there is more evidence of support holding and a positive bounce off of the log trendline. The downward wedge has bulllish indications and I see this pattern popping up in GBTC and Alt coins, like Nano, as well.

I will post supplemental zoomed in pictures supporting this write up.

2 oct. 2018

Note

the apex is at the .786 ($4780) and $4940 is the 50% Fib level.

2 oct. 2018

Note

close up on the wedge showing 4940 hitting on November 15, with overlay of the 30 and 60 day cycles.

2 oct. 2018

Note

This image shows that the descending triangle pattern has appex on November 15, perhaps this is evidence that volume surge will be selling volume as the pattern completes. The upward wedge on the chart shows selling action is expected in the short term, and this coincides with cycle analysis.

The trendline cutting through the center is the bottom of the symmetrical triangle. The 7 month long symmetrical triangle completes on October 6 and I am expecting selling volume to increase as it completes.

6 oct. 2018

Note

Btc is amazingly close to the apex of an 8 month long symmetrical traingle that stared 8 months ago on feb 4. I have the apex at oct 10.

Simply regarding patterns, I am expecting a downward breakout from the apex. The top line has had much more resistance than the bottom line has had support. Btc has spent many weeks weaving up and down over the support but the top resistance has barely been peirced for not longer than 24 hours at a time.

10 oct. 2018

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BTC holds onto the last sliver of the apex of an 8 month symmetrical triangle. I am expecting some volume on the 11th or 12th. Regarding the pattern it could break up or down however I am expecting down regarding the upward trend resisitance, and the gravity towards the lower support of the descending triangle near 5750.

10 oct. 2018

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It would be fitting if BTC hits the lower support near 5750 on Oct 15 which is the 60 day mark on the cycle, touching the cycle low.

11 oct. 2018

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This drop came directly on schedule, Oct 11 at the apex as expected.

13 oct. 2018

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I am estimating that BTC will stay above the lower parellel trendline until it hits the upper resistance on Oct 25, then it will hit the bottom support of the descending triangle and be supported there at 5750 until First week of November if so before it hits 4950 on November 15, as a capitulation phase before starting a bull trend, staying above the trendline seen on the 5 year log chart.

14 nov. 2018

Note

BTC is heading for the trenline on the log chart, on perfect schedule. I plan to be patient to see if the support holds. If support breaks we could see lower lows in near the end of the year, which is the apex of the wedge.