Beware the Bull Trap: New BTC Short Setup
Previously, we rode BTC from the depths of despair at 35,000 to nearly 40k before we suffered a major rejection off the upper 2.6 STDV Bollinger band about 2 hours ago (see linked).
In addition, we see major bearish divergence developing on the Chaikin Money Flow. While this recovery has been impressive in terms of price, the indicators (I use CMF and OBV) do not seem strong enough to support a real recovery. In fact, I'm of the opinion that dip buyers are opportunistic swing traders such as myself who are bailing / distributing to smooth brains between 38k and 41k (where the upper band would likely end up if price made a new high).
In any case, given the previous swift upper band rejection, the R/R in favor of a short - even a very brief short - is pretty good at those levels - if we make them. Maybe we only manage 41 to the previous high at 39 - which wouldn't be awful. But if we get lucky, we can ride this thing all the way down to 30k or even below.
In addition, we see major bearish divergence developing on the Chaikin Money Flow. While this recovery has been impressive in terms of price, the indicators (I use CMF and OBV) do not seem strong enough to support a real recovery. In fact, I'm of the opinion that dip buyers are opportunistic swing traders such as myself who are bailing / distributing to smooth brains between 38k and 41k (where the upper band would likely end up if price made a new high).
In any case, given the previous swift upper band rejection, the R/R in favor of a short - even a very brief short - is pretty good at those levels - if we make them. Maybe we only manage 41 to the previous high at 39 - which wouldn't be awful. But if we get lucky, we can ride this thing all the way down to 30k or even below.
Ordre annulé
While I didn't do this trade, mainly due to time constraints, a profit could've been had shorting directly from the 2.6 BB (41k) about 12 hours ago.
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Publications connexes
Clause de non-responsabilité
Les informations et les publications ne sont pas destinées à être, et ne constituent pas, des conseils ou des recommandations en matière de finance, d'investissement, de trading ou d'autres types de conseils fournis ou approuvés par TradingView. Pour en savoir plus, consultez les Conditions d'utilisation.