BitcoinLong
WTF happens next?!
Mis à jour
There's a lot going on here, so bear with me (no pun intended...).
First off, take a look at the two channels that I've drawn. We started this decline with a fairly steep downtrend channel. We broke out of that channel to begin a less steep downtrend channel. The bears are winning but their momentum is slowing... You'll also notice that we are near the top of that downtrend channel, which suggests that we're either getting ready to pop out of it again or headed down to the bottom of the channel.
Now take a look at the red line at 11,500. This line began with a double top back in early 2018 just as the bears were building up steam. It is also the support line of the first red candle that started the downtrend. We've been bouncing around that line in a pitchfork with the center-line just below this red line. This red line is also slightly below the 0.5 fib (Although you could argue that the red line should be on the 0.5 fib; I chose this line because it's a psychological number and because of the candle support). This is another sign that we're ready to break out on the upside or down to the next support levels of 10,600 or even 9,800.
Another signal that has me thinking we could go either way from here is that we are right in the middle of the general growth channel of Bitcoin that began all the way back to the beginning of the Coinbase chart. I'll talk more about this in a later post. While we are in the middle of the chart and moving horizontally, we are actually moving down relative to the slope of the channel, which is another indicator that the bears are winning.
Lastly, I see a bull pennant formed by the top of the current channel and a trendline that began after the spike up from 9800. This suggests to me that the bulls have more to run.
The good news is that we will know which way this market is going in just a few days (before July 10). So we can make our next move based on whether we exit this flag on the upside or the downside. If I were a betting man (which I clearly am if I'm investing in crypto!), I would say that our position inside the general growth channel is in our favor for continued long term growth of BTC. Also, the changing slope of the downtrend channel has me thinking the next slope will be higher still. Furthermore, it took about 5 days to break out of the previous channel and here we are again 5 days later approaching the apex of the bull flag. Note that the apex is also in the middle of 0.5 fib and 11,500. Working against us are the large pumps and dumps that occur due to small volumes as well as the fact that the market seems to go against general expectations.
One last note: Longs currently outnumber shorts by 2:1 on Bitfinex. A movement to the low-side could snowball as those margins are called and stop-losses are triggered. That's a tempting proposition for someone with enough capital to move the price in that direction.
Long story short: I'm invested for the long run with some cash on hand to grab more if prices drop.
First off, take a look at the two channels that I've drawn. We started this decline with a fairly steep downtrend channel. We broke out of that channel to begin a less steep downtrend channel. The bears are winning but their momentum is slowing... You'll also notice that we are near the top of that downtrend channel, which suggests that we're either getting ready to pop out of it again or headed down to the bottom of the channel.
Now take a look at the red line at 11,500. This line began with a double top back in early 2018 just as the bears were building up steam. It is also the support line of the first red candle that started the downtrend. We've been bouncing around that line in a pitchfork with the center-line just below this red line. This red line is also slightly below the 0.5 fib (Although you could argue that the red line should be on the 0.5 fib; I chose this line because it's a psychological number and because of the candle support). This is another sign that we're ready to break out on the upside or down to the next support levels of 10,600 or even 9,800.
Another signal that has me thinking we could go either way from here is that we are right in the middle of the general growth channel of Bitcoin that began all the way back to the beginning of the Coinbase chart. I'll talk more about this in a later post. While we are in the middle of the chart and moving horizontally, we are actually moving down relative to the slope of the channel, which is another indicator that the bears are winning.
Lastly, I see a bull pennant formed by the top of the current channel and a trendline that began after the spike up from 9800. This suggests to me that the bulls have more to run.
The good news is that we will know which way this market is going in just a few days (before July 10). So we can make our next move based on whether we exit this flag on the upside or the downside. If I were a betting man (which I clearly am if I'm investing in crypto!), I would say that our position inside the general growth channel is in our favor for continued long term growth of BTC. Also, the changing slope of the downtrend channel has me thinking the next slope will be higher still. Furthermore, it took about 5 days to break out of the previous channel and here we are again 5 days later approaching the apex of the bull flag. Note that the apex is also in the middle of 0.5 fib and 11,500. Working against us are the large pumps and dumps that occur due to small volumes as well as the fact that the market seems to go against general expectations.
One last note: Longs currently outnumber shorts by 2:1 on Bitfinex. A movement to the low-side could snowball as those margins are called and stop-losses are triggered. That's a tempting proposition for someone with enough capital to move the price in that direction.
Long story short: I'm invested for the long run with some cash on hand to grab more if prices drop.
Note
Moving out to a 1-day timeframe, I see the bottom of the bull flag extends back to before the peak that lead to the fall. This could be strong support but it will require significant momentum from the bulls to stay above it:Note
We're bouncing inside the wedge and the pitchfork. A move is coming soon!Note
The bulls made a nice break above the pendant but there wasn't enough momentum behind it to break through the horizontal channel. On the positive side, the bears have lost their momentum and we will likely trade sideways for a bit, unless we can break above 12,000 to post a higher high. Then we'll know the tables have turned. The longer we trade sideways, the better our chances for a sustained rally coming up.Another positive is that we have a clear Head & Shoulders pattern with a breakout, which is extremely bullish as long as we break above that 12,000 mark. I'm inclined to think that a strong breakout here could lead to a building momentum that could take us to an all-time high.
Note
Here we go! I anticipate that we'll be testing the 0.618 fib soon.
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