#202434 - priceactiontds - weekly update - bitcoin
Good Evening and I hope you are well.
Quote from last week:
comment: I am not making stuff up here now. Market is also neutral as can be. Last week was 58700 and now we are at 59700. Tails above and below bars and bulls still could not close one day above the daily ema. Wait for a breakout.
current market cycle: Trading range and bear wedge.
key levels: 49000-64000
bull case: Lower lows and lower highs but barely. Market is mostly neutral and bulls need a daily close above 62000 for a breakout.
Invalidation is below 56000.
bear case: Bears making at least lower lows again but 2 consecutive bear bars and the latter had a big tail below. That is not strong selling. Bears need a good daily close below 56000 for lower prices.
Invalidation is above 56000.
outlook last week:
→ Last Sunday we traded around 58700 and now we are at 59700. Market went nowhere last week and my outlook was expecting a bigger break down that did not happen but also did not went against me. Outlook was wrong but no harm done.
short term: Neutral af.
medium-long term: I have been writing about getting down to 50000 for many many weeks now and since we are only 3500 points above it, it’s time to review my medium-long term take. I do think we are doing a very similar thing to 2021. Market will probably touch the monthly 20ema at 46000 soon and then go for a dead cat bounce. I do not think market can do a higher high again. For me it’s lower highs from here on and highest I think it can get again is 65000 but I do think there is a good chance, 63000 may be all bulls can get again. If it trades strongly below 46000, probably 30000 soon after but let’s make 46000 first and then I reevaluate my take.
Update: Above was written 2024-08-04. As good as it gets. Next target is 40000. —unchanged since July
current swing trade: Closed shorts from 59000 for small profit. No interest in this trading range for anything but scalps.
chart update: Nothing.
Quote from last week:
comment: Bears were in a rush on Monday and printed a climactic bar down to 49111 but bulls bought the dip. As I am writing this, market is falling from 61000 to 58600 and going. Bears reversed it right at the daily 20ema and kept the bear gap to 64000 open, which is very strong by the bears. We are currently in a big bear wedge which could hold for a couple more weeks.
comment: I am not making stuff up here now. Market is also neutral as can be. Last week was 58700 and now we are at 59700. Tails above and below bars and bulls still could not close one day above the daily ema. Wait for a breakout.
current market cycle: Trading range and bear wedge.
key levels: 49000-64000
bull case: Lower lows and lower highs but barely. Market is mostly neutral and bulls need a daily close above 62000 for a breakout.
Invalidation is below 56000.
bear case: Bears making at least lower lows again but 2 consecutive bear bars and the latter had a big tail below. That is not strong selling. Bears need a good daily close below 56000 for lower prices.
Invalidation is above 56000.
outlook last week:
short term: Full bear mode again after the pullback. Want to see 50000 again and a daily close around it.
→ Last Sunday we traded around 58700 and now we are at 59700. Market went nowhere last week and my outlook was expecting a bigger break down that did not happen but also did not went against me. Outlook was wrong but no harm done.
short term: Neutral af.
medium-long term: I have been writing about getting down to 50000 for many many weeks now and since we are only 3500 points above it, it’s time to review my medium-long term take. I do think we are doing a very similar thing to 2021. Market will probably touch the monthly 20ema at 46000 soon and then go for a dead cat bounce. I do not think market can do a higher high again. For me it’s lower highs from here on and highest I think it can get again is 65000 but I do think there is a good chance, 63000 may be all bulls can get again. If it trades strongly below 46000, probably 30000 soon after but let’s make 46000 first and then I reevaluate my take.
Update: Above was written 2024-08-04. As good as it gets. Next target is 40000. —unchanged since July
current swing trade: Closed shorts from 59000 for small profit. No interest in this trading range for anything but scalps.
chart update: Nothing.
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