BTC - Macro Decision Time Soon - Bearish "What If" Scenarios
While I am not a fully committed bear yet (but acknowledge things are pretty bearish these days), I still think a rally in coming weeks/months is possible -- BUT given the macroeconomic environment.. one should always have a plan for either direction.. so lets talk about bearish scenarios.
Lets talk about a scenario where we lose the macro support (yellow trendline) AND we lose the secondary support at 34k to 35k -
My first target is the swing low from June 2021 around 28k. That would be a fairly weak retracement on what appears (depending on how you draw it) to be a very weak rising wedge pattern (only a 4 degree uptrend). A 28k retracement would signal a double-bottom and satisfy a weak retracement that corresponds to a weak rising wedge . Odds of this happening I put around 50% due to the weak 4 degree uptrend for this wedge .
If we lose the 28k range, 20kis the next critical support level , and failing that, I'm look at 18k-19k range where it likely only wicks before bouncing. This breakout target uses the length of wedge and confluence with an order block in late 2020 as a breakout target and key support. Odds of a retest of 20k seem extremely low, and below 20k even lower. We are talking 5% or less without another black swan or crisis.
Also dropping below 20k will break below earlier cycles ATH which never happened and would be an extremely bearish breakdown of precedent. Despite macroeconomic anxiety, we have a much higher adoption rate than ever before, we have much more liquidity and interest, and institutional players dominate the market and are less emotional, more calculated, meaning reduced volatility.. and you look at some of the smart money like MicroStrategy and Saylor, whose average buy-in is around 30k now.
But that said - nothing is impossible. This is crypto after all. And some of these lines and patters are subject to interpretation. I also see bullish scenarios as a possibility, but in general the investment landscape is bearish currently and this gives you targets to consider as you plan your trading strategy.
Lets talk about a scenario where we lose the macro support (yellow trendline) AND we lose the secondary support at 34k to 35k -
My first target is the swing low from June 2021 around 28k. That would be a fairly weak retracement on what appears (depending on how you draw it) to be a very weak rising wedge pattern (only a 4 degree uptrend). A 28k retracement would signal a double-bottom and satisfy a weak retracement that corresponds to a weak rising wedge . Odds of this happening I put around 50% due to the weak 4 degree uptrend for this wedge .
If we lose the 28k range, 20kis the next critical support level , and failing that, I'm look at 18k-19k range where it likely only wicks before bouncing. This breakout target uses the length of wedge and confluence with an order block in late 2020 as a breakout target and key support. Odds of a retest of 20k seem extremely low, and below 20k even lower. We are talking 5% or less without another black swan or crisis.
Also dropping below 20k will break below earlier cycles ATH which never happened and would be an extremely bearish breakdown of precedent. Despite macroeconomic anxiety, we have a much higher adoption rate than ever before, we have much more liquidity and interest, and institutional players dominate the market and are less emotional, more calculated, meaning reduced volatility.. and you look at some of the smart money like MicroStrategy and Saylor, whose average buy-in is around 30k now.
But that said - nothing is impossible. This is crypto after all. And some of these lines and patters are subject to interpretation. I also see bullish scenarios as a possibility, but in general the investment landscape is bearish currently and this gives you targets to consider as you plan your trading strategy.
Clause de non-responsabilité
Les informations et les publications ne sont pas destinées à être, et ne constituent pas, des conseils ou des recommandations en matière de finance, d'investissement, de trading ou d'autres types de conseils fournis ou approuvés par TradingView. Pour en savoir plus, consultez les Conditions d'utilisation.