BTC/USD - Live Update
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Bitcoin had a hard fall yesterday, following a large selloff which shook the entire Cryptocurrency market as a whole, as Bitcoin's dominance is once again shown in it's full force! Yesterday alone Bitcoin went from a high of the day on day open at 6820 and had a low of 6260, effectively losing around 10% of it's entire value in a single day. The logical scenario after such a drop is to assume there will be some sort of up move to compensate for the sheer downside. When there is such downside, the general logic is "what goes down must go up", and this is partially true. However, this is strongly conditional on how the trend at the time is reacting at the time. Sometimes a down trend will just down trend for months and absolutely will not stop, it can happen, and has happened before. So in order to apply the "what goes down must go up" logic, the scenario needs to make sense! There needs to be levels for this quote to apply, there needs to be SIGNS in the chart, and once we've found those, we can become tactical and decide where the most logical place to see the upside go to is. Saying this, just because something tanks, it doesn't mean it will stay this way. If price tanks down for a month, it can also spend a month rallying without pause and negate the entire downtrend in one swoop. In trading, anything is possible.
Currently trading at 6358, price is just above the horizontal support zone between 6340 and 6250. when price hit this level there was some small green candles, with the bottom beginning as a piercing signal, and Doji's following afterwards. Despite bottoming out, price does not look especially strong to the upside. Right now, price is trading right at the 78.6 Fibonacci resistance level, which could potentially be a top before the next down fall. But, this entirely depends if the horizontal support zone mentioned earlier does actually break, first. If it doesn't break, you're trading into potential buy orders, which is not good at all, you must make sure the coast is clear before you make any form of buy/sell to ensure you don't get trapped into a dud trade.
Bitcoin will now move in one of a few possible ways, these are:
1) Bitcoin trades up to the 78.6 Fibonacci resistance level (At current levels 6350) and then trades lower, breaking the horizontal support zone between 6340 and 6250, before possibly breaking down further to a long term side-wards support line at 5920.
2) Bitcoin trades higher from current levels up to 6485, a corrective retracement level which converges with multiple moving average resistance. when price hits here, price falls and hits the horizontal support zone between 6340 and 6250.
3) Bitcoin trades higher to the 6485 level mentioned above, and then hits the horizontal support zone between 6340 and 6250, later breaking below this level, hitting the long term side-wards support line at 5920.
4) Bitcoin simple trades higher to 6485, and then breaks higher, using the moving averages as support and then trades higher, towards the resistance zone at 6790.
Bitcoin had a fantastic opportunity yesterday to break the moving averages as resistance and use them as a support, which in turn, would have meant that Bitcoin could actually potentially be in an uptrend for months at a time.
Bear in mind that when price is bottomed out like this, we need to keep an open mind and assess the possibilities, or it isn't realistic. I personally believe scenario 1 is the most likely, followed by 2, and 3 being most unlikely. This is strictly an observation, and whichever scenario plays out I won't hesitate to take a trade in ANY of these scenarios. I don't have a favorite scenario that I'll be more eager to trade than another, I'll trade any of them with no hesitation. Not because I want to, but because I should do.
I will continue to update this analysis if it receives sufficient likes/attention.
Please leave a LIKE and FOLLOW, I'd really appreciate it. :-)
Currently trading at 6358, price is just above the horizontal support zone between 6340 and 6250. when price hit this level there was some small green candles, with the bottom beginning as a piercing signal, and Doji's following afterwards. Despite bottoming out, price does not look especially strong to the upside. Right now, price is trading right at the 78.6 Fibonacci resistance level, which could potentially be a top before the next down fall. But, this entirely depends if the horizontal support zone mentioned earlier does actually break, first. If it doesn't break, you're trading into potential buy orders, which is not good at all, you must make sure the coast is clear before you make any form of buy/sell to ensure you don't get trapped into a dud trade.
Bitcoin will now move in one of a few possible ways, these are:
1) Bitcoin trades up to the 78.6 Fibonacci resistance level (At current levels 6350) and then trades lower, breaking the horizontal support zone between 6340 and 6250, before possibly breaking down further to a long term side-wards support line at 5920.
2) Bitcoin trades higher from current levels up to 6485, a corrective retracement level which converges with multiple moving average resistance. when price hits here, price falls and hits the horizontal support zone between 6340 and 6250.
3) Bitcoin trades higher to the 6485 level mentioned above, and then hits the horizontal support zone between 6340 and 6250, later breaking below this level, hitting the long term side-wards support line at 5920.
4) Bitcoin simple trades higher to 6485, and then breaks higher, using the moving averages as support and then trades higher, towards the resistance zone at 6790.
Bitcoin had a fantastic opportunity yesterday to break the moving averages as resistance and use them as a support, which in turn, would have meant that Bitcoin could actually potentially be in an uptrend for months at a time.
Bear in mind that when price is bottomed out like this, we need to keep an open mind and assess the possibilities, or it isn't realistic. I personally believe scenario 1 is the most likely, followed by 2, and 3 being most unlikely. This is strictly an observation, and whichever scenario plays out I won't hesitate to take a trade in ANY of these scenarios. I don't have a favorite scenario that I'll be more eager to trade than another, I'll trade any of them with no hesitation. Not because I want to, but because I should do.
I will continue to update this analysis if it receives sufficient likes/attention.
Please leave a LIKE and FOLLOW, I'd really appreciate it. :-)
Note
Price is at juncture level now. The outlook is simple now... Bitcoin is either going to break the horizontal support zone between 5840 and 5780 and go to the lows, or go upwards from this level to the highs.Looks like a level playing field, and the level price is at right now is a very important juncture level. It's the defining level for what the trend will do for the near future so let's keep an eye on how it acts!
If price breaks to the upside, it will face a lot of obstacles on the way up, as per my primary analysis scenarios, I count Bitcoin going to the higher resistance level is quite unlikely, but certainly not impossible. :-)
Leave a LIKE and FOLLOW, I'd really appreciate it.
Thank you for your support.
Note
Price has made it's decision, and broke the horizontal support zone cleanly, and now price is traveling downwards towards our horizontal support zone between 5920 and 5780. When price hits this level, I will reassess the chart and see what is happening there.It looks like scenario 1was the one to play out.
Note
New post regarding Bitcoin has been posted. We go further into updates with Bitcoin with a more precision one directional movement.With this, we can gage buying opportunities more clearly in future.
Please leave a LIKE. I'd really appreciate it. :-)
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