XBTFX

Bitcoin: still highly overbought

BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   Bitcoin
The ETF frenzy continues to shape investors sentiment on the crypto market. Although the BTC ETF furry started to modestly calm down during the previous week, it has swiftly re-emerged after the unconfirmed news that BlackRock is planning to file for the first ETH ETF. The crypto market gained significantly on this news during the previous week, gaining around 10% on a weekly basis. The crypto futures also moved in the same direction, where BTC futures maturing in March 2025 reached the price above $40K. At the same time, the destiny of official approval of the crypto ETFs is still under huge question, whether the SEC will approve it in the coming period or will they continue to postpone it until the market loses its risk appetite.

Charts continue to reflect this strong hype on the crypto market. The price of BTC strongly moved at the end of the previous week from levels around $35K support, up to the highest weekly level at $37.903. Still, BTC is finishing the week around level of $37K, without strength to clearly test the $38K short term resistance. The RSI indicator continues to move within a highly overbought territory for the second week in a row. It has reached the level of 83, which is a strong indication of a highly overbought side as well as strong potential for a short term reversal in the coming period. The moving average of 50 days continues to diverge from its MA200 counterpart, after the two lines created a so-called “golden cross” two weeks ago.

As long as the hype lasts, the markets will not follow the specific path which occurs under normal conditions. In this sense, there is some probability that BTC will continue to move within a highly overbought market side for another week in a row. However, it just increases the probability of a short term reversal, which might soon occur. In this sense, it could be expected that the support line at $35K will be tested in the coming period. However, if the frenzy continues, supported by more unconfirmed news, then it might be expected that BTC will test the $38K resistance line.

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