Bitcoin Daily Update (day 291)

I believe that it is possible to beat the market through a consistent and unemotional approach. This is primarily achieved through preparing instead of reacting. Click here to learn more about how I use the indicators below and Click here to get my complete trading strategy! Please be advised that I swing trade and will often hold onto a position for > 1 month. What you do with your $ is your business, what I do with my $ is my business.

For a variety of reasons I no longer believe that $2,718 will be the bottom of the 2018 Bitcoin’ bear market. I am now very confident that we will return to $1,000 before finding a bottom. That is due to Tyler Jenks’ hyperwave theory and the Point of Control on the Visible Range Volume Profile with > 2 year look back | Calling a top in the S&P 500 at $2,634


Previous analysis: “This is where the 33 MA is expected to act as a magnet due to the downward angle.”
Position: Short EOSH19 from 0.0006463 | Long LTCZ18 from 0.00795 | Short XRP:BTC from 0.00009306

Patterns: Will be watching for c&h | Phase 7 hyperwave
Horizontal support and resistance: $3,750 - $3,800 appears to be turning into support | R: $4,145
BTCUSDSHORTS:Still supporting above the trendline
Funding Rates: Longs will receive 0.0493%
Short term trend (4 day MA): Price support above
Medium term trend (9 day MA): Bullish and posturing for golden cross
Long term trend ( 33 day MA): Close above and starting to flatten
Overall trend: If we can continue to support above the 33 MA then it will flatten and we will get a golden cross and it will be fully bullish
Volume: Watching for volume to decline as the price pulls back indicating a lack of supply below $4,000
Candlestick analysis: Tweezer top
Ichimoku Cloud: Will be watching for price to re enter cloud but that is still a ways away
TD’ Sequential: G6
Visible Range: High volume node from $3,750 - $4,450 is being tested
Price action: 24h: -4.6% | 2w: +12.7% | 1m: -16.7%
Bollinger Bands: At $3,538. Lowest price can go for me to still be leaning bullish
Daily Trend (Using 1h 33 MA to identify daily trend): Bearish
Parabolic SAR: $3,235
RSI: 49.5. Would like to see above 50.
Stochastic: Getting a sell signal right now


Summary: The next few days will be very important for me. If we support above $3,750 and flatten out the 33 MA while getting a golden cross with the 9 then I will be looking to enter a long. I would also expect that to create a cup and handle which could be used as a spot to add to the position.

On the other hand if we retrace below the daily Bollinger Band MA at $3,538 then I will be viewing that as the top of the dead cat bounce. That is right in line with the 9 day MA and if we close below that then I will be looking to re enter a short.

The main reason I think that the former is more likely is due to yesterday’s buying volume.