BitcoinShort
#202452 - priceactiontds - year end special - bitcoin
Good Evening and I hope you are well.
comment: I’d love to see bitcoin below 70000 in Q1 2025 and MicroStrategy file for bankruptcy in 2025. I think this would be fun. Yes.
Market made almost 600% from the 2022-12 low and about 62% of it after Trump was elected again. The bull trend before that, was from 2020 to 2021 where btc made about 1700% - followed by a 77% drop. It’s therefore a reasonable target to assume that btc could half again. The tricky part is always the time frame. By now you should have picked up my bearish bias for 2025 and given the previous correlation to other markets, bitcoin won’t be the safe haven every other crypto bro on x is telling you it will be.
50% retracement would bring us to roughly 65000, which is close enough to many big magnets. Previous ath from 2021, big bull trend line, the breakout retest area and the monthly 20ema which we have not touched since 2023-10. My preferred target would be 32000 but that’s a bit much to ask for as of now.
As long as market is holding above 90000, bulls are safe and in control of the market. Once we drop below, I highly doubt there will be many bulls willing to hold through a deep pullback down to 70000, which I expect the selling to accelerate greatly below 90000. What are the odds of another higher high above 108000? Not bad but I think if bulls would have been strong enough for it, they would have gotten it over the holidays. If they manage to retest 108k, my max target for this is roughly 110000. Anything above would surprise me.
current market cycle: Bull trend from 2022 is still ongoing but I think we saw the last leg ending at 108367. Market can retest that high and maybe make a higher one but I think the upside potential is very limited.
key levels for 2025: 60000 - 110000
bull case: I always try to give a balanced outlook but I don’t have anything for the bulls. 108k was so stretched and peak bubble behavior that it’s pure guesswork if this was the high or not. Technically the shown chart has two trend lines that could reach 115k and market can always overshoot on a spike. I just highly doubt it will happen but I have been wrong before about tops and I can be on this one as well.
Invalidation is below 90000. I can not see bulls scaling into this because a pullback could easily test down to 75000 or lower.
bear case: The pain trade is to the downside. There is no arguing about that fact. Only issue for bears is that bubbles can go on for longer than anyone’s account can handle. So selling right now with a stop 109k is reasonable but most bears want more confirmation. Below 90000 more bulls have to cover and this will accelerate down. My targets in order are the breakout retest around 75000 and if things get bad enough there, we go down to the 50% pullback and the bull trend line at 62500. There I expect the market to go sideways for more time and depending on how we get there, we can estimate new targets above or below.
Invalidation is above 115000
short term: My bearish bias for 2025 is low probability until bears can close consecutive daily bars below 90000. Right now the market is in a trading range near the ath and bulls remain in control. I would not initiate shorts as of now and rather wait for confirmation or another lower high above 105k
medium-long term: 75000 is my biggest target for now and until bears get there, any lower target is just unreasonable. My bias is bearish going into 2025 and I think the odds of a bigger leg down are good.
current swing trade: None
comment: I’d love to see bitcoin below 70000 in Q1 2025 and MicroStrategy file for bankruptcy in 2025. I think this would be fun. Yes.
Market made almost 600% from the 2022-12 low and about 62% of it after Trump was elected again. The bull trend before that, was from 2020 to 2021 where btc made about 1700% - followed by a 77% drop. It’s therefore a reasonable target to assume that btc could half again. The tricky part is always the time frame. By now you should have picked up my bearish bias for 2025 and given the previous correlation to other markets, bitcoin won’t be the safe haven every other crypto bro on x is telling you it will be.
50% retracement would bring us to roughly 65000, which is close enough to many big magnets. Previous ath from 2021, big bull trend line, the breakout retest area and the monthly 20ema which we have not touched since 2023-10. My preferred target would be 32000 but that’s a bit much to ask for as of now.
As long as market is holding above 90000, bulls are safe and in control of the market. Once we drop below, I highly doubt there will be many bulls willing to hold through a deep pullback down to 70000, which I expect the selling to accelerate greatly below 90000. What are the odds of another higher high above 108000? Not bad but I think if bulls would have been strong enough for it, they would have gotten it over the holidays. If they manage to retest 108k, my max target for this is roughly 110000. Anything above would surprise me.
current market cycle: Bull trend from 2022 is still ongoing but I think we saw the last leg ending at 108367. Market can retest that high and maybe make a higher one but I think the upside potential is very limited.
key levels for 2025: 60000 - 110000
bull case: I always try to give a balanced outlook but I don’t have anything for the bulls. 108k was so stretched and peak bubble behavior that it’s pure guesswork if this was the high or not. Technically the shown chart has two trend lines that could reach 115k and market can always overshoot on a spike. I just highly doubt it will happen but I have been wrong before about tops and I can be on this one as well.
Invalidation is below 90000. I can not see bulls scaling into this because a pullback could easily test down to 75000 or lower.
bear case: The pain trade is to the downside. There is no arguing about that fact. Only issue for bears is that bubbles can go on for longer than anyone’s account can handle. So selling right now with a stop 109k is reasonable but most bears want more confirmation. Below 90000 more bulls have to cover and this will accelerate down. My targets in order are the breakout retest around 75000 and if things get bad enough there, we go down to the 50% pullback and the bull trend line at 62500. There I expect the market to go sideways for more time and depending on how we get there, we can estimate new targets above or below.
Invalidation is above 115000
short term: My bearish bias for 2025 is low probability until bears can close consecutive daily bars below 90000. Right now the market is in a trading range near the ath and bulls remain in control. I would not initiate shorts as of now and rather wait for confirmation or another lower high above 105k
medium-long term: 75000 is my biggest target for now and until bears get there, any lower target is just unreasonable. My bias is bearish going into 2025 and I think the odds of a bigger leg down are good.
current swing trade: None
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