Bitcoin Testing Schiff Downtrending Pitchfork for Breakout
After a failed motherboard and hard drive Monday morning I have some new tech to continue the writing. The cryptos have been decently unimpressive after some glimpses of hope the past few days, so come in and let's dig a little deeper.
On the hourly analog Bitcoin Bitfinex chart below, I have been tracking this down-trending pitchfork which I have revised slightly to an Schiff pitchfork from the high of May 5th to the swing low on May 9th and back again to the swing high on May 10th.
The Schiff pitchfork has contained price pretty well within 2 standard deviations (sd) for almost the entire downtrend and today price is right on the precipice of making a move again.
On the screenshot below you will see how, price was denied right at the outside of that red 2 sd line. Throughout the remainder of last week and the weekend price rallied back up to the red median line in the middle of the pitchfork, retest the blue 1 sd line twice, before hugging the median line pretty tightly before exploding through the median line on Monday at 12pm EST.
Price then popped up to the 1.5 sd purple channel and then back to the black 200 hour moving average before finally giving the 2 sd red channel a test today.
Over the next few hours here, it looks like price will test the bottom side of that upper red channel which is also converging with the light blue 50 hour moving average at $6,694. Next I would think a retest of the top of that upper red channel at maybe $6,800.
Depending on the volume around there, and the strength of the bulls will determine the next fate for Bitcoin. A decisive green candle could easily lead to a rally back up to $7,500, but if there is no volume a trip down to the mid $5,000’s could be possible.
I have also drawn a bearish flag between the two parallel yellow lines and if the bulls don’t break that $6,950 level at the top of that channel the bears could take over there again.
The RSI is currently heading to overbought levels, so that needs to be worked off a bit over the next few hours for a move higher and the MACD is concordantly curling downward as well. It may be another 24 hours before any big price moves happen.
On the daily analog Bitcoin Bitfinex chart below, I have drawn an upside down Fibonacci retracement line based on the top on May 5th to the bottom on June 13th at $6,108 and if this is the 5th Elliot Wave in this bearish downdraft a revisit to $7,594 at the 0.382 retracement appears likely over the next week.
The candles are pretty indecisive right now and may continue to be for the next few days, but volume does appear to be picking up slightly at least over the last 3 days.
The good news is the MACD does have a bullish crossover as well now, which I have circled and the last time this happened back in April it took 3 days to have it’s bullish pop to take price up $1,300. The histogram is still gradually trending upward as well.
The RSI is still pretty oversold, but also appears like it wants to move higher. Still don’t like that bearish flag between the yellow parallel lines. Best to wait and see what happens over the next 24 hours.
Overall, the past few months of trading action looks quite similar to a Wyckoff Accumulation Phase C, where price could head a bit lower, but this could be the last leg down before price begins to get marked up again. I’ll keep an eye on it, if that pattern continues.
-More on Vanddar.com
On the hourly analog Bitcoin Bitfinex chart below, I have been tracking this down-trending pitchfork which I have revised slightly to an Schiff pitchfork from the high of May 5th to the swing low on May 9th and back again to the swing high on May 10th.
The Schiff pitchfork has contained price pretty well within 2 standard deviations (sd) for almost the entire downtrend and today price is right on the precipice of making a move again.
On the screenshot below you will see how, price was denied right at the outside of that red 2 sd line. Throughout the remainder of last week and the weekend price rallied back up to the red median line in the middle of the pitchfork, retest the blue 1 sd line twice, before hugging the median line pretty tightly before exploding through the median line on Monday at 12pm EST.
Price then popped up to the 1.5 sd purple channel and then back to the black 200 hour moving average before finally giving the 2 sd red channel a test today.
Over the next few hours here, it looks like price will test the bottom side of that upper red channel which is also converging with the light blue 50 hour moving average at $6,694. Next I would think a retest of the top of that upper red channel at maybe $6,800.
Depending on the volume around there, and the strength of the bulls will determine the next fate for Bitcoin. A decisive green candle could easily lead to a rally back up to $7,500, but if there is no volume a trip down to the mid $5,000’s could be possible.
I have also drawn a bearish flag between the two parallel yellow lines and if the bulls don’t break that $6,950 level at the top of that channel the bears could take over there again.
The RSI is currently heading to overbought levels, so that needs to be worked off a bit over the next few hours for a move higher and the MACD is concordantly curling downward as well. It may be another 24 hours before any big price moves happen.
On the daily analog Bitcoin Bitfinex chart below, I have drawn an upside down Fibonacci retracement line based on the top on May 5th to the bottom on June 13th at $6,108 and if this is the 5th Elliot Wave in this bearish downdraft a revisit to $7,594 at the 0.382 retracement appears likely over the next week.
The candles are pretty indecisive right now and may continue to be for the next few days, but volume does appear to be picking up slightly at least over the last 3 days.
The good news is the MACD does have a bullish crossover as well now, which I have circled and the last time this happened back in April it took 3 days to have it’s bullish pop to take price up $1,300. The histogram is still gradually trending upward as well.
The RSI is still pretty oversold, but also appears like it wants to move higher. Still don’t like that bearish flag between the yellow parallel lines. Best to wait and see what happens over the next 24 hours.
Overall, the past few months of trading action looks quite similar to a Wyckoff Accumulation Phase C, where price could head a bit lower, but this could be the last leg down before price begins to get marked up again. I’ll keep an eye on it, if that pattern continues.
-More on Vanddar.com
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