BTCUSD Overview: Consolidation May Be Over Soon.

4 juil. 2017

BTCUSD Overview: Without getting into the detail on a 15 minute chart, I want to provide a broader view based on price action with some perspective on wave counts. It is clear that this market is currently in a Wave 4 triangle. You can count 5 subwaves within the formation (I left them out for chart clarity) which means there is a good chance we may be forming the first leg of wave 5 which can take this thing beyond the 3000+ all time high.

In order for this bullish condition to stay intact, price needs to stay above the major trend support of 2188. That is a .382 measuring from the bottom of wave 3. As long as we stay above that, it is reasonable to expect continued upward momentum. If price closes below, that will signal a more complex wave 4, or further consolidation to come.

At the moment, the key resistance zone that needs to be cleared is 2645 to 2790 area. It is a broad resistance, but if price closes beyond this range, then it would confirm for me that wave 5 is in progress.

An area that I would consider for a bullish reversal on a smaller time frame is the 2420 area. it offers a lower risk entry in my opinion because it is a .618 retracement of the minor bullish swing that we are at the peak of currently. If a trade setup appears and is taken, some targets to consider are 2818 (T1) and 3070 (T2).

In conclusion, there are more signs of strength than weakness in this market, despite being in a corrective wave pattern. It is possible that price may not retrace back to my ideal support, find support sooner and continue higher. Keep in mind there are plenty of minor supports and levels on the smaller time frames than can provide earlier entry prices and risk metrics, I just wanted to begin with a broader view of this market for now. Let's see where it goes from here.