Bitcoin Returns following the Halving

1 sept.

This chart provides a visual representation of Bitcoin's price movements in relation to its halving events. Bitcoin halving is a significant event that occurs approximately every four years, where the reward for mining new Bitcoin blocks is halved, effectively reducing the rate at which new Bitcoin is generated. Historically, these halving events have been followed by significant changes in Bitcoin’s price.

Key Points from the Chart:
Historical Performance After Halvings:

The chart tracks Bitcoin's monthly price performance following each halving event. It shows a pattern where September, after a halving year, often marks a critical turning point.
For instance, in past cycles (2013, 2016, and 2020), the months following September have seen significant gains, particularly in October and November.
September as a Pivot Month:

The data suggests that September, following a halving year, tends to be a weaker month, often showing negative or relatively flat returns. However, it is followed by strong positive returns in the following months (October, November, December).
This pattern indicates that September could be the last opportunity to enter the market before a potential significant upward movement.
Average and Median Returns:

The table in the chart highlights average and median returns for October, November, and December after the halving. These months typically exhibit strong performance, with October and November particularly showing robust growth historically.
Market Sentiment Advice:

The message associated with this chart emphasizes a contrarian investment approach: "Buy when there's fear." The logic is that entering the market when sentiment is low (fear is high) can position investors well for the strong returns historically seen in the months following September in a halving year.
Conclusion:
This chart and analysis suggest that if Bitcoin follows its historical patterns post-halving, there could be significant gains in the final quarter of 2024. September might be a period of accumulation for those looking to enter or expand their positions before a potential bull run. The overarching message is to be cautious of buying into hype and to consider entering the market during periods of fear and uncertainty, which could offer the best buying opportunities.