Bitcoin

Bitcoin entering ATH zone and here is why

The one thing that has stunned me about Bitcoin is how the Traders Psychology remains consistent. Over periods of Time, while Bitcoin was well known or not, it repeats cycles like Clockwork.
This is one of the things thats makes it so attractive.
So, what makes me say this ?
The main Chart has 2 components. The number of days PA takes from Low to ATH.
We also have the number of days between where the 50 SMA ( red) is above or below PA in those cycles.
https://www.tradingview.com/x/ZWs4NMY4/
The image above clearly shows the continuity.
the Blue lables show Low ro ATH and back. First peak is 2013
At first, the only repeat there is the time from ATH 2017 to low, near the same in 2021
We also have the 2 ATH in 2021 and the time from the Low before hand, to the 1st ATH in March 2021 is the same number of days as in 2013 to Low. ( not shown )

Next we look at the 50 SMA - Again, that double top in 2021 has amazing coincidences .
2013 - 50 SMA took 693 days to go back under PA
2021 1st ATH took 686 days to go back under
2017 took 462 days to back under
2021 2nd ATH took 462 to go back under !
BOTH those ATH's in 2021 reference previous ATH
The same happens for the days under to ATH, but not shown to keep the chart clear,

As a result of this, I have projected the number of days to possible ATH dates and we are near the First zone. But to reach an ATH in March would require a truly historic rise.
And if we continue to follow the Top trend line as a line of ATH, we are to expect High Figures on the final ATH of this cycle, though I feel this is optimistic

One of the reason I am feeling VERY Cautious about a March ATH on that line is the MACD
https://www.tradingview.com/x/FA3KIVjv/

It is WAY up high and it does not range on a weekly. OverBought is where BTC is right now. It took 6 months for MACD Weekly to cool off last time....
Though lower time frames are low and will offer support. But to push up rapidly to a real ATH line will be unreal if it happen. We wait to see

B
But one thing that does offer some Scope for more is the MVRV Z Score
https://www.tradingview.com/x/RvCqIVXR/

The orange line is the line where we see BTC getting overheated and en-route to ATH and we have not crossed it once yet this cycle.
As you can see, the MVRV is in a Descending trend though. Do we Still need to cross that orange line ? "nd ATH in 2021 was below.
MVRV, or Market Value to Realized Value, is a technical indicator used in the cryptocurrency market to evaluate whether a token is overvalued or undervalued.
Technically, it seems it is getting harder to get BTC to be OverValued....because of its high price now. ?
Historical data on MVRV maybe becoming outdated ?

So, in conclusion, Technically, Bitcoin has room to move if it continues to follow historical patterns.
But in reality, right now, it is overbought in a real world situation, running out of steam but all it needs is a breather and it will run again....as shown on the MVRV Zscore.
Notice how, when the Z Score ( yellow) is above the MVRV ( Green) that is bullish

For me, I would LOVE to see BTC pul back for a while, Cool down, Lets the ALTS Run hard for a bit and then, BTC wakes up again and off we go
A Pull back is Expected ona number of charts
Will that happen ?
Time will tell



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