The End of the Trend for Bitcoin in 2023

14 juin 2023

Following up on my coverage of the Bitcoin 2023 trend it has now officially ended the same way it began: with price and momentum confirming a trend change on the Daily Ichimoku cloud.

History:

One of the major signals I use to identify trend changes and trading opportunities is when price and momentum clears the Ichimoku cloud. It was important to point this out to my readers in January as not only a textbook example but also to wake Bitcoin traders up following the FTX collapse FUD and following malaise of price. Many were excited to jump in on this opportunity. Just as this signal identified the rally for 2023 we must also acknowledge that the opposite signal has occurred to end it.

Where price may go:
The next support is not far; the 50% Retracement of the entire 2023 move is at 23227. Price could find support here and I will evaluate it there.

FUNdamentals
This is the result of the non-change in interest rates which the market was expecting. However, JPow's talked of the Fed continuing to raise rates later in the year. So while stocks rallied to close even Bitcoin and all crypto suffered. It can now be seen that Bitcoin is more interest rate sensitive than other risk markets.

This is an interesting but unsurprising divergence. I have come to realize that what moves crypto is only cash inflows. Crypto projects, despite their hopes, still do not generate wealth in the form of increase productivity of goods nor services. Ergo, the only way price goes up is if cash is coming in. If money printer goes less 'brrrr' then that just cannot happen.