BTC: Caution if long: Possible bull flag
Mis à jour
I remain bullish on BTC. I had expected a lower low than the one that came in, but I didn't expect a full reversal of trend. In my view, corroborated by looking back at 2017 (see linked analysis), April has simply witnessed another relatively mild correction.
In being mild, this has been a concern, because the fifth wave in the seven wave structure I see being printed (see linked analysis) should be deeper than Wave 1 or Wave 3, and it was, but only marginally so relative to Wave 1.
This is why I expected 45.2, and not 46.9, which is what we got (see Scenario 2 linked below, and Scenario 1 for a full explanation).
Some have noted that GOLD/BTC reached and halted at a shallow resistance/support area. Others have noted the coincidence between GOLD in March 2020 and BTC now. We also have historical support and resistance levels to take note of on the BTC.D chart.
At any rate, while I do expect BTC to go on from here to print the seventh wave, those going long on the basis of today's price action might want to note what happened in both January and February before the main upswing got going.
In both cases, there were fakeouts.
So far, I have been waiting for price to retest the consolidation area immediately before the bottom came in, and I would still expect that area to be revisited. So while BTC could reach up now as far as 58.9, it wouldn't surprise me to see a swift descent to retest 50.8 before continuing to the upside.
Note that on the macro Fibonacci (bottom left), BTC is currently pushing through the 3.0. It is very normal as Fibonacci levels are penetrated to see a drop back two levels or more before continuance.
However, past performance is no guarantee when looking to the future.
Feel free to comment.
In being mild, this has been a concern, because the fifth wave in the seven wave structure I see being printed (see linked analysis) should be deeper than Wave 1 or Wave 3, and it was, but only marginally so relative to Wave 1.
This is why I expected 45.2, and not 46.9, which is what we got (see Scenario 2 linked below, and Scenario 1 for a full explanation).
Some have noted that GOLD/BTC reached and halted at a shallow resistance/support area. Others have noted the coincidence between GOLD in March 2020 and BTC now. We also have historical support and resistance levels to take note of on the BTC.D chart.
At any rate, while I do expect BTC to go on from here to print the seventh wave, those going long on the basis of today's price action might want to note what happened in both January and February before the main upswing got going.
In both cases, there were fakeouts.
So far, I have been waiting for price to retest the consolidation area immediately before the bottom came in, and I would still expect that area to be revisited. So while BTC could reach up now as far as 58.9, it wouldn't surprise me to see a swift descent to retest 50.8 before continuing to the upside.
Note that on the macro Fibonacci (bottom left), BTC is currently pushing through the 3.0. It is very normal as Fibonacci levels are penetrated to see a drop back two levels or more before continuance.
However, past performance is no guarantee when looking to the future.
Feel free to comment.
Note
02 May 2021 07:24:38: The more time passes, the more unlikely it feels that BTC is going to revisit 50k. This would remain the level I would expect to be retested, in order to establish a backtested support level, but while BTC is not exactly showing strong upside momentum, it is showing bullish strength nonetheless in holding to the levels it is printing. Wave 1 managed to hold above the 0.5 local Fibonacci, and held the 2.786 on the macro Fibonacci. Wave 2 is stronger still, so far: holding above the 0.382 on the local Fibonacci and holding, again so far, to the 3.0 on the macro Fibonacci. If 58.6 continues to range as we move into the trading week, the first week of the trading month, we might start to see upside momentum pick up. CME gaps like above. Alts are itching to push up. Perhaps the base is as confirmed as it will be, and BTC starts the grind forward before really picking up pace as upper levels start to get cleared. That all said, until BTC clears and holds 59.6, which is the 0.702 on the entire downside correction, we cannot confidently project a continuance to the upside. The 0.702 is the level one would expect a retracement rally from a local top to reach. Rejection there might put lower lows than 50k back in view. Breaking through the 0.702 would move focus to 70-80k as the next significant high.Note
02 May 2021 08:15:02: BTC edging on the zone of filling in the CME gap:
AgitationZone | TA-focused cryptocurrency Discord channel discord.gg/atGcaRzz
Publications connexes
Clause de non-responsabilité
Les informations et les publications ne sont pas destinées à être, et ne constituent pas, des conseils ou des recommandations en matière de finance, d'investissement, de trading ou d'autres types de conseils fournis ou approuvés par TradingView. Pour en savoir plus, consultez les Conditions d'utilisation.