BTCUSD - Emotion free detailed technical analysis
I think most people trading bitcoin want to see the prices getting higher including me. Unfortunately, I can't see that on the chart. (I'm a swinger and I always use daily charts). If you are using different time frames, you might get different signals.
1. Candlestick pattern is shooting star, a good indication of a bearish move
2. The wick of the candle yesterday was long and it pierced the 50% Fibonacci, the resistance line and also the 50MA. This is also an indication that the upward movement was corrective and now it is bouncing down again to continue the downtrend.
3. This is supported by the oversold stochastic and the short term and long term divergence on the stochastic.
4. Also, there is short term divergence on MACD.
5. MACD signal is flattening and looks like it is diving again.
6. The 50MA is also flat and maybe started to turn bearish.
There are different scenarios (as usual with technical analysis). This downward movement could be corrective and it can move up again and break the strong resistance above $11500. But, the most likely scenario is:
a. it will move down to touch the bottom of the red symmetrical triangle above point #5 (follow the thin dark green line)
b. bounce up again for short correction and then follow the dark red thick line to the outside of the symmetrical triangle down to touch the bottom of the green falling wedge. ($4500-5000) to the right and down from point #5.
c. Reverse the trend from there and start new up-trend (hopefully) which can reach new higher highs above the previous hype (above 20000) - This part is obviously, not very emotionally free.
Please do not short, long, hold or whatever, based on this analysis. Do your own work and trade safely. Sorry, the chart is too messy.
I would like to hear your opinions.
1. Candlestick pattern is shooting star, a good indication of a bearish move
2. The wick of the candle yesterday was long and it pierced the 50% Fibonacci, the resistance line and also the 50MA. This is also an indication that the upward movement was corrective and now it is bouncing down again to continue the downtrend.
3. This is supported by the oversold stochastic and the short term and long term divergence on the stochastic.
4. Also, there is short term divergence on MACD.
5. MACD signal is flattening and looks like it is diving again.
6. The 50MA is also flat and maybe started to turn bearish.
There are different scenarios (as usual with technical analysis). This downward movement could be corrective and it can move up again and break the strong resistance above $11500. But, the most likely scenario is:
a. it will move down to touch the bottom of the red symmetrical triangle above point #5 (follow the thin dark green line)
b. bounce up again for short correction and then follow the dark red thick line to the outside of the symmetrical triangle down to touch the bottom of the green falling wedge. ($4500-5000) to the right and down from point #5.
c. Reverse the trend from there and start new up-trend (hopefully) which can reach new higher highs above the previous hype (above 20000) - This part is obviously, not very emotionally free.
Please do not short, long, hold or whatever, based on this analysis. Do your own work and trade safely. Sorry, the chart is too messy.
I would like to hear your opinions.
Note
beware of the support by the 200MA. It can bounce up off the 200MA at around 8400Note
These are all the levels of support to help plan your trade:S1: 8900 (Fib level - weak) But, a shallow bounce at this level will create an inverse head and shoulder pattern and potential reversal of the downtrend.
S2 8500 (200MA - strong)
S3 7200 (Fib level - strong)
S4: 5900 (Fib level, lower limb of the falling wedge and historical support/resistance level plus around the level of previous low - Very Strong support). I think all buyers are waiting here.
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