BTC - Evidence for Bull Continuation
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Since $3600 the trend line has still remained in tact. The recent pullback though abrupt showed signs of buyers coming in much more quickly then the previous pullback. This is evident from the wick on the 4 hour chart. Bottom line, buyers are looking to buy on any dip period! Unless you were sitting at your computer and ready to hit buy, you had a few minutes to get in at $14,000. Even the first pullback was bought up extremely faster than the last one. This is hardly the sign of a bear market, but as we know sentiment can change on a dime and often does when we least expect it.
The comparison of the two corrections is very similar. In September the trend changed and we formed a new trend line. Obviously at that time we could not have known that, but as we obtain more data the trend became clear. Currently that trend is still in tact. It has been tested but any test has been bought up quickly. So bottom line as much as I want an $11,000 correction to happen, and though it still can happen, I do not see any evidence to support it. You can do technical analysis to the cows come home, but sometimes the most simple things, like trend lines, are the best guides for positioning. I can show you fibb retracements, EW wave counts, ABCDE wedges, triangles, that all show us going lower, but these are assumptions. This is why corrections are difficult to trade and Elliott Wave is not a crystal ball but a guide. What did we base our assumption on? The prevailing trend. Now this is completely different from Septembers correction where we never reverted back to the prevailing trend line. We started a new trend line and from that point it is still in tact.
So why did I enter so early after the correction when normally I am a tight trader and conservative investor? Simple buyers bought the dip quickly pushing us back into the previous consolidation channel. I was willing to buy a 1/3 position at $14,740 as the previous dips at the trend line were short lived (see below) . My stop loss zone would be below the trend line which is a now lower than my entry level. Trend lines often become resistance after breaking support so I believe it was a low risk entry as I would have opportunity to exit with minimal loss and still be up overall. Playing with house money so to speak.
Regardless of the the numerous TA's calling for 11k or as low as 5k. Please show me some evidence more than an assumptive pattern and a call that we have come to far to fast? I'm not saying we won't correct, so do not get me wrong, but where is the evidence we will? I will provide my evidence for a bullish continuation.
#1 - Prevailing trend has NOT been broken.
#2 - All dips into the trend line see buyers rush in
#3 - NOT one 4 hour bar closed below the trend line
#4 - We made a HIGHER HIGH and an HIGHER LOW
#5 - We are CONSOLIDATING at where we would expect for another run.
Now the Bear evidence
#1 - We NEED to break the trend line where support become resistance (assumptive till it happens)
#2 -
Now sure someone can throw up and EW count, Fibb retracements, Wedges, Triangles etc, and provide a bearish pattern that may or may not develop, but I can do the same for a bullish pattern as well. This is why I will say it again, corrections are difficult to trade!
Bottom line, many times TA's over analyze charts, and fail to look at the most important thing. THE TREND! Until that trend line is broken I am bullish. I'm looking to add to the position out of the two consolidation boxes shown.
The comparison of the two corrections is very similar. In September the trend changed and we formed a new trend line. Obviously at that time we could not have known that, but as we obtain more data the trend became clear. Currently that trend is still in tact. It has been tested but any test has been bought up quickly. So bottom line as much as I want an $11,000 correction to happen, and though it still can happen, I do not see any evidence to support it. You can do technical analysis to the cows come home, but sometimes the most simple things, like trend lines, are the best guides for positioning. I can show you fibb retracements, EW wave counts, ABCDE wedges, triangles, that all show us going lower, but these are assumptions. This is why corrections are difficult to trade and Elliott Wave is not a crystal ball but a guide. What did we base our assumption on? The prevailing trend. Now this is completely different from Septembers correction where we never reverted back to the prevailing trend line. We started a new trend line and from that point it is still in tact.
So why did I enter so early after the correction when normally I am a tight trader and conservative investor? Simple buyers bought the dip quickly pushing us back into the previous consolidation channel. I was willing to buy a 1/3 position at $14,740 as the previous dips at the trend line were short lived (see below) . My stop loss zone would be below the trend line which is a now lower than my entry level. Trend lines often become resistance after breaking support so I believe it was a low risk entry as I would have opportunity to exit with minimal loss and still be up overall. Playing with house money so to speak.
Regardless of the the numerous TA's calling for 11k or as low as 5k. Please show me some evidence more than an assumptive pattern and a call that we have come to far to fast? I'm not saying we won't correct, so do not get me wrong, but where is the evidence we will? I will provide my evidence for a bullish continuation.
#1 - Prevailing trend has NOT been broken.
#2 - All dips into the trend line see buyers rush in
#3 - NOT one 4 hour bar closed below the trend line
#4 - We made a HIGHER HIGH and an HIGHER LOW
#5 - We are CONSOLIDATING at where we would expect for another run.
Now the Bear evidence
#1 - We NEED to break the trend line where support become resistance (assumptive till it happens)
#2 -
Now sure someone can throw up and EW count, Fibb retracements, Wedges, Triangles etc, and provide a bearish pattern that may or may not develop, but I can do the same for a bullish pattern as well. This is why I will say it again, corrections are difficult to trade!
Bottom line, many times TA's over analyze charts, and fail to look at the most important thing. THE TREND! Until that trend line is broken I am bullish. I'm looking to add to the position out of the two consolidation boxes shown.
Note
Note
As we approach the trend line which Ironically is where a H&S is formed, and is also the 0.618 retracement, and is at the bottom of the channel I have looked at levels to prepare for a down turn if it happens. In my opinion it is a coin flip, but on all 4 time charts we did not see the same buyers jump in, so the bears are gaining control it seems. But as I said sentiment can change on a dime. Note
The futures contract is slightly into backwardation which bearish.Note
To disclose I'm out @ $14350 on the 1/3 position added yesterday at $14729. It could reverse right here and I can always re-enter. Lets see where it lands
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