Bitcoin and winter of the financial cycle

This is my thesis of the very long term Bitcoin structure. We can observe price behavior from the beginning and see forming of the exponential price channels. As far as the price currently stays below exponential channels there is a chance the price might be forming some much bigger (primary? channel).
Simple EW structure might be signalling end of bullish supercycle and continuation of it's first major bear supercycle with bigger and longer decline as usual. To me overall macroeconomic perspective and probability of the recession this year (highest in 40 years!) goes hand in hand with this bigger shift.

bullish perspective: the price needs to break 30k major resistance and hold 25k support level to keep bull market hopes
bearish perspective: price will fail at the current resistance and will break 25k