Bitcoin and it's insane dump, 7600 Neckline triggered stops
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A few hours ago i wrote this in my (public) channels:
Crazy ass market, the 7600 was a clear neckline, think the whole market new that. But to see this happen, is a bit insane as well. I still need to check everything, but at first sight it seems volume was not huge. Looks like bear flag in the making now, so i would be careful with going long here. Shorting is also not a great idea because in theory there is room up to 7600 where the a bit resistance is at 7800 now. I mentioned a few times, a big drop was possible and would even be healthy in the 6K range, but of course not like this. I can see Bitfinex never broke the 7000 so we might be able to assume the drop below 7000 was just a glitch. Based on that, it would make it more likely to see the support getting retested again coming week. Ideally we see a move up to 7400/7500 and see some rejection there, if that happens we could go retest the 6800 again.
I can see alts took big hits again as well, again showing how mean this market is.
Already a hour has passed. It really needs to bounce up now, otherwise it would need another game plan again. So for now i wuold see if we see a decent bounce up to 7400/7600 but with low volume, we might be able to think about taking on a short. There is a potential very big H&S with neckline at 6800 (which is unlikely because it's too big). At the moments it's a guessing game. If this plan works out and we get some signs of the alts as well coming days. Then we can judge if the fun (rally) is over already or that it's just a correction of the big rally we had so far
I can add the following: 7600ish is a resistance level, the previous neckline of that H&S (or double top). Volume was not huge on the dump, so i am not convinced yet that THE high is set and that we start to dump again. Just keeping options open at this point. When the bear flag is real, we should normally not touch the 7600. Usually we see it getting sold below that level (if the resistance is real), so more like 7500/7550. A bullish version, would mean a few tests of 6800/7000 coming days. So seeing something like a rounding bottom, as i have drawn on the left. For this to happen, it will most likely take several days. Important factor will be the alts as well, if they gain strength, that would increase the chances for bullish outcome. If they remain flat or drop even, than bearish scenario will be in favor. I think the 6200/6400 will be an important level for the bulls coming week or so. A break of that level would take away the scenario that this big dump was just a healthy correction of the big rally we had past month. I have mentioned many times already, corrections after a big move are usually fast and violent. Now of course not as insane as we had today, but maybe we could look at Bitfinex price, where it only dropped to 7000. That one is normal then. 6800ish is still an important level but for a bullish outcome, i think it should not break 6900ish coming weekend. So many variables at this point, but it's premature to think the Bear market has started again. We need to see how things go first coming days. I actually decided to take a small break yesterday told everyone that i would only update if an extreme move would happen, so the break was very short. Later today i will try to do a bit more research and will try to narrow the scenario's down a bit.
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Previous analysis:
Crazy ass market, the 7600 was a clear neckline, think the whole market new that. But to see this happen, is a bit insane as well. I still need to check everything, but at first sight it seems volume was not huge. Looks like bear flag in the making now, so i would be careful with going long here. Shorting is also not a great idea because in theory there is room up to 7600 where the a bit resistance is at 7800 now. I mentioned a few times, a big drop was possible and would even be healthy in the 6K range, but of course not like this. I can see Bitfinex never broke the 7000 so we might be able to assume the drop below 7000 was just a glitch. Based on that, it would make it more likely to see the support getting retested again coming week. Ideally we see a move up to 7400/7500 and see some rejection there, if that happens we could go retest the 6800 again.
I can see alts took big hits again as well, again showing how mean this market is.
Already a hour has passed. It really needs to bounce up now, otherwise it would need another game plan again. So for now i wuold see if we see a decent bounce up to 7400/7600 but with low volume, we might be able to think about taking on a short. There is a potential very big H&S with neckline at 6800 (which is unlikely because it's too big). At the moments it's a guessing game. If this plan works out and we get some signs of the alts as well coming days. Then we can judge if the fun (rally) is over already or that it's just a correction of the big rally we had so far
I can add the following: 7600ish is a resistance level, the previous neckline of that H&S (or double top). Volume was not huge on the dump, so i am not convinced yet that THE high is set and that we start to dump again. Just keeping options open at this point. When the bear flag is real, we should normally not touch the 7600. Usually we see it getting sold below that level (if the resistance is real), so more like 7500/7550. A bullish version, would mean a few tests of 6800/7000 coming days. So seeing something like a rounding bottom, as i have drawn on the left. For this to happen, it will most likely take several days. Important factor will be the alts as well, if they gain strength, that would increase the chances for bullish outcome. If they remain flat or drop even, than bearish scenario will be in favor. I think the 6200/6400 will be an important level for the bulls coming week or so. A break of that level would take away the scenario that this big dump was just a healthy correction of the big rally we had past month. I have mentioned many times already, corrections after a big move are usually fast and violent. Now of course not as insane as we had today, but maybe we could look at Bitfinex price, where it only dropped to 7000. That one is normal then. 6800ish is still an important level but for a bullish outcome, i think it should not break 6900ish coming weekend. So many variables at this point, but it's premature to think the Bear market has started again. We need to see how things go first coming days. I actually decided to take a small break yesterday told everyone that i would only update if an extreme move would happen, so the break was very short. Later today i will try to do a bit more research and will try to narrow the scenario's down a bit.
Please don't forget to like if you appreciate this :)
Previous analysis:
Note
Okay so now we have the following:Did not break the 7500, so a first small bearish sign keeping the bear flag in play. From what i can judge, 7100/7000 will be an important level as well, because support of the flag is around that level now. 6900ish level is still as mentioned above, don't think the market wants to se 68xx prices.
We have what looks like a wedge now as well, which could bring it all the way down to the starting point. But a wedge in a position like this, is either a higher low (so above 7100) or the start of a big dump. Based on dropped volume and that it's weekend, i don't think a big dump will happen coming day or 2. However, we had some big moves during weekends past months, so i would be at least a bit aware. Volume on the drop of this wedge is low, so also saying chances small now for a big drop.
The red line, would say a drop to 6900 to test support again in a bullish version as i had shows before (red line on the left). I have drawn that to show the possibility of a fake bear flag. For that my best guess is, staying above the 6900ish. For this version, we should need to see alts outperform Bitcoin a little bit after a bounce again. This version also says we need to move in this 6900/7500 for maybe 2/4 more days.
So far it's following the bear flag version to the point, so would be best to keep following that path until something changes there. We could see another wave up as the bear flag suggests, to see how strong the 7500/7550 is. A break of 7600 (not just a wick) would put the bear flag out of play.
Note
New ETH analysis:
Note
Looks like a curving bottom support now. Still following the blue line on the left as well. So if this curved support works, we could see that move up to 7500ish coming 12/16 hours or so. If it breaks, than as i mentioned before with the support levels at 7100ish and 6900ish. So ideally another bounce from that support, would make a move to 7500ish more likely. Note
Nice bounce and rally, but this bounce seems to be quite strong, also because of it reached the 7600. Doesn’t feel like a normal move up inside a bear flag. So this increases the chances some, that the drop might be over already. Still a long road ahead, but a likely scenario now would be, seeing a higher low coming day or 2, around 7100 maybe. Alts coming day could give a good sign as well. If they start to grow some again during a sideways movement of bitcoin , a bullish outcome will become more likelyNote
Wow, what a volume as well. This is a bit amazing after such a drop. Maybe after the whales saw h&s patterns popping up, they thought good times to use their short position as fuel to move. The 7500 broke like it was never a resistance, getting close to 7600 would have been a bullish sign as mentioned above. Now already at 7800, which can still be a big resistance. A higher low at 7100 is already not a likely scenario at this point. It’s either a fake rally, so with intention to drop even more. Or the market is in such a hurry now, it might not even drop below 7400/7500. Can judge better when this move up ends this waveNote
New Bitcoin analysis:
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