Bitcoin: Probabilities NOT Opinions.

Bitcoin has not done much in the previous week besides defining the range of the trade area that I anticipated a week earlier (in a matter of one day actually). The key technical points are established and it is a matter of catalyst and confirmation when it comes to aligning with the potential trade areas that can develop over the coming week. The 105K AREA is the key resistance while the 100K AREA continues to be the key support. Price action confirmation in either one of these areas can justify risk for smaller time frame strategies.

This is a tricky time, and one where the wrong opinion will be very costly which is why I am a big proponent of probabilities NOT opinions. The broader trend is bullish which means resistance levels are more likely to break, UNLESS proven otherwise. With a double top now established in the 105 to 108K area, the higher probability entry for longs would be the low 100K area. Which can also offer shorting opportunities for smaller time frame strategies. IF 100K is cleared, that would increase the chances of a 90K test.

This may be a Wave 4 of a much broader Wave 3. There is no way to know for sure until the market breaks one way or the other to confirm. In bullish trends, support levels tend to be maintained which presents buying opportunities at least on smaller time frames at the 100K area, anticipating a test of the 105 to 108K. This type of price action can be classified as a consolidation on the short term and expectations should be adjusted for that.

What about a bullish break above the 109K area high? While the general price structure favors such a scenario, the question is what is going to drive the price? Instead of trying to guess, IF this is the path the market will choose, I would rather WAIT and let the market confirm before taking any action. Sure I would have to sacrifice better entries, but I am okay with that if it means getting on the right side of the price momentum.

Thank you for considering my analysis and perspective.