BTC Daily Chart 9th november 2023

9 nov. 2023

In my previous idea i indicated the ascending channel in which BTCUSD is currelty moving. We had a recent retest of the bottom trendline followed by a rally towards the upper trendline.
Usually ascending channels are a continuation formation so in a way i am hoping/expecting for a breakout BUT if we compare the trenline to the RSI indicator we can spot a bearish divergence, indicating a possible correction in the near future (we could already spot the divergence on the 4h chart and has now also formed on the daily chart, giving it more validation). So i would be cautious and look for confirmation on any next move (like a positive retest of the upper channel-line indicating it flipped from resistance to support).

It's hard to predict how BTC will manage to get out of the channel (breakout or breakdown) but at least we have a range/channel to focus on. When BTC breaks the channel we can expect a more significant move.

10 nov. 2023

Note

BTC tried to break out of the ascending channel but hit the wall when it reached 38K. It wasn't able to keep up the momentum and got sucked back into the channel. This is why a positive retest of the breakout is necessary IMO. without a proper daily close above the previous resistance line there is still a significant chance that the move is only temporary.
So BTC is back within the channel but the breakout did probably tenderize the upper resistance line a bit. We will probably see another attempt to breakout in the near future. If this second attempt fails, we could see some minor correction as a response.

On the more positive news, ETH had a nice rally and was able to break above the 2k resistance line (including a daily close above it). The rally followed the news that blackrock has officially applied for a spot ETH ETF.
All in all, good news that BTC and ETH are rallying in turns.

11 nov. 2023

Note

As expected, BTC made another attempt at breaking the ascending channel and sort of succeeded but without confidence.
At the moment, BTC is trying to find support on the upper channel trendline but a definitive move will probably come later in the day (or weekend).

If BTC can manage to stay above the upper trendline, we will see another attempt to break the 38k resistance.
If BTC falls beneath the upper trendline, we will probably revisit the lower channel trendline at 35k.

13 nov. 2023

Note

BTC is still consolidating around the upper trendline of the ascending channel. On the 1h chart we notice a new descending channel (indicated on the graph with blue trendlines).
A breakdown from the descending channel will lead further to the lower trendline around 35k.
A breakout from the descending channel will lead to a run towards the resistanceline of 38K and if this breaks 40K.

14 nov. 2023

Note

On the 1h chart we notice that there was a breakdown from the descending channel but BTC managed to climb back in, after finding support on the 200MA line.
Although the breakdown on the 1h chart isn't fully confirmed, we can confirm on the higher timeframe charts (like 4h and daily) that BTC wasn't able to breakout of the ascending channel.
A logic next move will be that BTC retraces back to the lower channel trendline, trying to find support.

15 nov. 2023

Note

As expected BTC retraced back towards the lower channel line and even dropped beneath it (going lower than 35K). But, BTC was able to recover and managed to crawl back into the ascending channel.
Normally, we see a bit more consolidation after such a retracement but today was a different story. Judging by the sudden rally from 36,5k towards 37,5+k i suspect that the rally was mainly caused by a short squeeze (people with a short position whose stop loss went off when the price of BTC climbed above the 1h 200MA line (which you can see on the graph in my previous comment).

So what's next? BTC was able to come close to 38K but will have to break it before moving higher.
If BTC isn't able to break 38K, which is more likely if the rally was caused by a short squize, we could see a another pullback towards 35K. It's still too soon to make the call but in such a case BTC could be forming a double top with peaks at 38K and neckline at 35K (which would be a perfect setup for a deeper correction towards 31-32K).

17 nov. 2023

Note

After a fast rally to 38K we also saw a fast correction back to 35,5K. Probably because the BTC ETF approval window led to another postponing by the SEC. Seems like a definitive answer will be for January 2024 and in the meantime more corrections are possible.

We can sort of conclude that the outlines of the ascending channel are less and less valid, we saw both an outbreak and a breakdown from the channel signaling to me that we are nearing the turnpoint.
After two tries, BTC was unable to break above 38K and thus formed a double top with neckline around 35K. Considering a doubletop is a bearish signal I think that it is more likely that BTC will breakdown beneath the neckline and we will see a correction/retest of the 31-32K support zone.
If, in the more unlikely scenario, BTC is able to break above 38K this bearish scenario is invalid and we will see another leg up.