Will BTC hit $37k in March? (Simplified Fibonacci analysis)

6 mars 2021

On the daily chart, the upward impulse that led to the January ATH of 42K started 16 December.

We have the advantage of knowing already the full retracement pattern of January.

Within that frame it did a perfect 0.786 bounce to the upside, before reaching its lowest level 22 January. This then segued into a consolidation phase between 23 and 26 January, before a dip (almost to the low of 22 January), and the move to the upside starting 28 January.

This marked the beginning of the second wave after breaking the previous historical ATH.

This second wave reached 58k on 21 February.

The question is how far will BTC retrace now.

On all kinds of timeframes, BTC tends towards full retracements. So you see it hit the 0.786 Fibonacci consistently.

To chart the upside limit of the next wave, the Fibonacci extension tool is useful, where the 1.272 level is often respected.

Using 16 December as the base, the ATH of 58k on 21 February can be found precisely at the 1.272 level of the Fibonacci extension tool.

Further, the base of coming waves, on various timeframes, often reach down to the 0.618 of the retracement of the previous wave.
So if we use the 0.618 retracement of January, this gives both a projected next ATH for BTC, and a potential base of the present retracement.

The next ATH can be projected at 73k.

Using the January 0.618 retracement, we find the base of this present February wave at 37k.

We can project that at some point BTC will hit 37k.

One anomaly remains. The absence of a full 0.786 bounce in the present chart. So I expect a dip, from time of writing, and a bounce to the 0.786 level at 54K, at which BTC, for the time being, will find too much resistance, dropping from there to 37k, before breaking out to the next ATH of 73k.

This scenario seems hard to project on the basis of what is in front of us now.

But there are a couple of points to bear in mind, and that support this possible scenario.
1) If BTC retraces to 37k, it will also pull down the total crypto market cap to around the 1T mark, hence constituting a retest of that level;
2) 37k is below the peak of the last wave (January), which is what tends to always happen in a standard retracement. 1 step forward, two steps back.
3) 37k to 74k will be an epic parabolic ascent, spurring a huge alt season, and doubling the total market cap, possibly in less than a month. This aligns with the general state of crypto amid mass institutional investment. Bigger ascents lead to bigger retracements.

The above scenario depends on BTC reaching resistance at 54K and failing to break through.

The timeline of the above is unknown at this time.

After 74k, using the same general model, 96k is next, from which BTC would retrace to 50k, which would be a 48% retracement.

7 mars 2021

Note

I should emphasise that these levels won't be visited for long — neither the top, nor the bottom, if even the projection is not invalidated. This is something many overlook when thinking 37k is impossible. Impossible for more than 10 minutes, probably yes.

8 mars 2021

Note

As time passes, and watching the price action, and contextualising the strength of the bull run overall, I started to think that some kind of black swan event is perhaps needed to get the momentum enough to push BTC down from 54K to 37k, given strong support levels in the 50k range. Then I saw the excellent breakdown of @Pholesolus on how high multiple companies are getting hammered right now. Bitcoin is not a cash-now investment. You can find his analysis here:

9 mars 2021

Note

09 Mar 2021 14:27:04: From current price action, I'm revising the projection here, establishing the base of the macro Fibonacci at 38.8k and not 37k. There is an intense struggle unfolding now around the revised 0.786 Fibonacci level. Impossible to say with certainty which side will win, but given the macro context, I think it's a bull trap.

9 mars 2021

Note

09 Mar 2021 22:31:38: An important update is the convergence that is happening now on the BTC daily chart in the MACD indicator. The MACD line is converging with the Signal line from underneath. The last time this happened was 2-3 February, as BTC pulled out of the bottom of the January correction. It's one signal, but a significant one, that in fact the correction may be complete. If borne out, the analysis in the chart above would be invalidated. Currently BTC is idling just under the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level on the initial downside impulse. 55k remains the key level BTC has to break. But this convergence on the MACD indicator suggests it will.

10 mars 2021

Note

10 Mar 2021 08:08:31: I've been detailing what I've been seeing that relates to this post here:

I was seeing at the macro level a confluence that suggested a strong rejection at 55k. While I still want to see a 4-hourly close above 55k, presently with no sell walls forming above 55k, and with no dramatic news of BTC inflows to exchanges, a new all time high is in sight, and the macro analysis of Fibonacci level confluence suggesting a turn to the downside at 55k is invalid. I'd say I'm 80-90% sure it's wrong.

10 mars 2021

Note

10 Mar 2021 18:06:09: Note that despite how large the last 4-hourly candle was, it didn't close above the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level. This puts us in a quandary, still.
Meanwhile, we're reaching now to 56.6k, which aligns to resistance tested 22 February.
This could well mark a turning point to the downside, but be careful: on the daily chart, if $56.6 is the present limit, there is a target between the 0.386 and 0.5 Fibonacci that aligns with a zone previously resistance, now support, that calls to be re-tested.
Don't mistake a return to 52K as BTC folding back upon itself on the way to 38k. I think honestly that projection is virtually invalidated. So I would expect a retest of 52K before a return to the upside.

10 mars 2021

Note

10 Mar 2021 18:22:00: I'm calling the macro analysis detailed in the chart of this post as INVALIDATED.