Bitcoin - Closer to the bottom than you think!
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After failing to break up from an inverse head & shoulders as well as various wedges and triangles, it's safe to say that there won't be a terminal shakeout from these levels and the bears have the upper hand for now. Bitcoin fell out of market structure and wasn't able to rise back above the uptrend which we had been following since June so I believe we will now be following the orange-shaded descending channel until we have either a Van Eck ETF decision or until the start of the next bull run.
There is strong trend-line support connecting the December 2013 high, July 2017 high and the September 2017 low. This forms the support for an ascending channel which bitcoin has dropped into and the previous uptrend support (where Bitcoin broke market structure) is now the channel resistance. This channel resistance also connects the September 2017 high and the October 2017 low.
RSI is still heavily oversold on the daily chart so there should be some relief to the upside. This is an extended trend so RSI can stay oversold for a while and I don't think the price will rise above the $5660 - $5750 resistance in the short term. A move above this will most probably be capped at $5940.
Price should then fall to the channel support around 5k where the price should reverse around 10 December. There will probably be sideways action or a tight range until 29 December when the SEC is due to make a decision regarding the Van Eck / Solid X ETF which could be the catalyst for the next uptrend.
If the Van Eck ETF is not approved or is deferred until 28 February 2019, the price should then drop back towards the channel support at $4380 which coincides with the 78.6 fib retracement from the peak in December 2017. If the SEC decides to approve the ETF on 29 December 2018 or 28 February 2019, there should be a strong move back to the top of the channel for a potential start to the uptrend.
Price range between 78.6 fib and 88.6 fib is known as a hot-spot trading zone for Fibonnaci traders where high probability trades are likely to take place. This price range is between $2411.1 and $4384. If the channel support holds at $4384 then I expect this to be the absolute bottom of the overall retracement, which should take place around April 2019. A drop below this falls into the hot-spot trading zone which will really be the opportunity of a life time!
If $4384 is the bottom, there should be a retracement towards the 61.8 fib around $13350, if 5k is the bottom then the 61.8 fib is around $14200.
Good luck and happy trading!
There is strong trend-line support connecting the December 2013 high, July 2017 high and the September 2017 low. This forms the support for an ascending channel which bitcoin has dropped into and the previous uptrend support (where Bitcoin broke market structure) is now the channel resistance. This channel resistance also connects the September 2017 high and the October 2017 low.
RSI is still heavily oversold on the daily chart so there should be some relief to the upside. This is an extended trend so RSI can stay oversold for a while and I don't think the price will rise above the $5660 - $5750 resistance in the short term. A move above this will most probably be capped at $5940.
Price should then fall to the channel support around 5k where the price should reverse around 10 December. There will probably be sideways action or a tight range until 29 December when the SEC is due to make a decision regarding the Van Eck / Solid X ETF which could be the catalyst for the next uptrend.
If the Van Eck ETF is not approved or is deferred until 28 February 2019, the price should then drop back towards the channel support at $4380 which coincides with the 78.6 fib retracement from the peak in December 2017. If the SEC decides to approve the ETF on 29 December 2018 or 28 February 2019, there should be a strong move back to the top of the channel for a potential start to the uptrend.
Price range between 78.6 fib and 88.6 fib is known as a hot-spot trading zone for Fibonnaci traders where high probability trades are likely to take place. This price range is between $2411.1 and $4384. If the channel support holds at $4384 then I expect this to be the absolute bottom of the overall retracement, which should take place around April 2019. A drop below this falls into the hot-spot trading zone which will really be the opportunity of a life time!
If $4384 is the bottom, there should be a retracement towards the 61.8 fib around $13350, if 5k is the bottom then the 61.8 fib is around $14200.
Good luck and happy trading!
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