Crucial decision point coming for BTC, should we buy?

18 août 2023

We are at a crucial decision point in BTC. BTC has tested its major support of 25300 and even dipped below for a brief second. On August 12th BTC closed below its upward trend line that had held its value for 11 days straight. Even though it's price stayed in consolidation moving sideways, many indicators were projecting a massive dump.

Thankfully the support of 25300 has held for now, but this may not be the case for much longer. However, there is some good news, BTC has had quite a large jump in volume the last 2 days. The Sell Volume Average crossed the Buy Volume Average on August 15th, most of it was people panic selling, but regardless volume is not a bad thing considering how stagnant the market has been lately.



Coming August 28th, BTC's upward trend line that formed at the beginning of this pump in December of 2022 will be crossing with the downward trend line that caused BTC to stagger in this pump from 31k to 24.8k.

This trend line cross is quite crucial especially since volume is now in play and BTC is very volatile now. There is a high likely hood the upward trend line will be tested in the upcoming few weeks, even if 25.3k manages to hold. The more times it is tested, the higher the chance it will break the support. If the support is broken around August 28th where the downward trend line is crossing and so close in price point, theres a high chance it will pivot under the downward trend line and we will have a new strong resistance that is on a major slope and could revert all of BTC's progress.

There is also the possibility of BTC consolidating and maintaining above the support of 25.3k, this is good, but if we don't gain a strong bullish position before November 7th where the support of 25.3k intersects the upward trend line, we could likewise see a bearish shift below.

All of this sounds rather negative, however, aside from just having more volume in the market there are some positive things to be thankful for. One of which is the RSI. Currently RSI is very low and BTC is very oversold. Consolidation will cause it to rise and even out but it also leaves room for a correction that may happen. If you want an RSI that doesn't even out due to consolidation, our Professional Suite of Indicators will be available for sale in the up coming weeks.



Our oscillator also shows we've had heavy bearish momentum with a strong volume strength, however the predictive MA is crossing above the regular MA meaning there is a chance for a reversal correction incoming.



When it comes to understanding the market, Indicators are very important, and having the right data matters. However, there is more to understanding the market than just indicators. Politics either local or geopolitical and other factors have a big role in what happens in the market. Lets discuss one that we know is happening soon and that will play a major role.

BTC will see its halving likely in April of 2024. Historically speaking, BTC has a few cycles that go hand in hand with its halving. BTC pumps for 200+ days after the halving which result in massive gains. BTC then dumps for a similar timeframe as the pump, resulting in a loss of about 30% of the gains made during the pump. Then follows Accumulation, Expansion and Reaccumulation which results in small pump, dumps and consolidation. We are currently experiencing large consolidation with small pump and dumps between. However, historically BTC will start to pump a few months before the halving and maintain this momentum for 8+ months following the halving. If history is to repeat itself we will likely see BTC starting this pump late 2023 to early 2024.

Here is a basic example of how people were estimating BTC to be for the 2020 halving:

There is a high likely hood that the 2024 halving will see a new ATH. If historic trend analysis isn't your thing, well theres another cherry on top that goes along with the halving coming in 2024. Currently it costs an average of $17,000 USD to mine 1 BTC, which means theres a low chance BTC will ever go below that, otherwise theres no point to mine. When BTC halves in April 2024, this cost will rise to over 30k USD. This means the new bottom that BTC will likely face after April 2024 is 30k.

Based on a lot of factors in play, BTC will likely struggle for the next few months until it eventually takes off due to the halving factor.

So the question remains.. should we buy?

IMO, right now is a great time to buy, and if you're patient, likely soon will be an even better time to buy if BTC struggles to maintain its bullish position.

Interested in learning how to chart and trade? Our Professional Suite of Indicators will be released for sale within a few weeks. If you would like to be notified once the website is finished and they're for sale, please shoot us a PM.